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A Combination of Methods. The Way Forward in Coalition Research
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Abstract
Current research on coalition formation is plagued by two serious problems. First, we still cannot predict more than about one third of the governments that form in the Western European countries, and second, we typically do not have a good understanding of the causal mechanisms that explain the effects found in large-n coalition studies. In this paper, we illustrate that a combination of a statistical analysis and case study analyses should enable us to solve these problems and thus come closer to explaining and predicting coalition formation. Since statistical analyses are well equipped for measuring and isolating causal effects, we argue that a coalition study should start with such an analysis. By using the predictions made in this analysis, we can then select cases for an intensive study. In order to study the mechanisms underlying the effects found in large-n coalition studies, we argue for selecting cases that are predicted, and then applying the method of process verification. In order to find new explanatory variables, we argue for selecting cases that are deviant, and then applying the method of process induction.
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| | Authors: Bäck, Hanna. and Dumont, Patrick. |
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Abstract
Current research on coalition formation is plagued by two serious problems. First,
we still cannot predict more than about one third of the governments that form in
the Western European countries, and second, we typically do not have a good
understanding of the causal mechanisms that explain the effects found in large-n
coalition studies. In this paper, we illustrate that a combination of a statistical
analysis and case study analyses should enable us to solve these problems and thus
come closer to explaining and predicting coalition formation. Since statistical
analyses are well equipped for measuring and isolating causal effects, we argue
that a coalition study should start with such an analysis. By using the predictions
made in this analysis, we can then select cases for an intensive study. In order to
study the mechanisms underlying the effects found in large-n coalition studies, we
argue for selecting cases that are predicted, and then applying the method of
process verification. In order to find new explanatory variables, we argue for
selecting cases that are deviant, and then applying the method of process induction.
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