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Backing into the Future: Reconceiving Policy Reform as Intertemporal Choice

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This paper makes a case for reconfiguring the analytical lens through which we compare and explain governments’ public policy choices. Through an examination of the politics of welfare-state reform, it aims to demonstrate that a temporal lens of analysis can reshape both the policy puzzles inviting scholarly attention and the causal arguments best suited to unraveling them. The political analysis of recent welfare-state reforms has been largely structured along distributive lines, focused on explaining retrenchment. Yet, politicians seeking to control social spending have faced choices not only about who should pay the costs of adjustment, but also about when those costs should be imposed. Moreover, those governments who imposed the heaviest losses on program beneficiaries were often not those able to enact the most dramatic and costly investments in long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper contends that, in explaining reform choices as intertemporal tradeoffs, we need to employ a causal logic distinct from that used to explain retrenchment. To illustrate the argument, the paper reanalyzes a paired comparison of pension reforms from Paul Pierson’s Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment. Viewed through a temporal lens, Pierson’s puzzle of policy reform is reversed. Britain -- the case of radical retrenchment -- largely delayed the costs of population aging, while the United States -- the case of incremental cutbacks -- adopted massive, costly investments in long-term sustainability. These outcomes were shaped by institutional context, but in ways contrary to the structural effects that scholars of distributive politics have usually identified. While concentrated policy authority led politicians to address long-term policy problems through distributive means, dispersed veto power generated distributive stalemate that led politicians to invest in long-range outcomes at short-run cost.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

polici (157), term (133), polit (127), reform (105), state (101), pension (99), would (91), cost (84), govern (84), long (79), benefit (72), distribut (71), social (67), program (64), intertempor (60), long-term (57), institut (56), welfar (54), group (53), invest (51), short (49),

Author's Keywords:

intertemporal policy choice, investment, welfare state reform, institutions, veto points, United Kingdom, United States, pensions
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Jacobs, Alan. "Backing into the Future: Reconceiving Policy Reform as Intertemporal Choice" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p61544_index.html>

APA Citation:

Jacobs, A. , 2004-09-02 "Backing into the Future: Reconceiving Policy Reform as Intertemporal Choice" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p61544_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper makes a case for reconfiguring the analytical lens through which we compare and explain governments’ public policy choices. Through an examination of the politics of welfare-state reform, it aims to demonstrate that a temporal lens of analysis can reshape both the policy puzzles inviting scholarly attention and the causal arguments best suited to unraveling them. The political analysis of recent welfare-state reforms has been largely structured along distributive lines, focused on explaining retrenchment. Yet, politicians seeking to control social spending have faced choices not only about who should pay the costs of adjustment, but also about when those costs should be imposed. Moreover, those governments who imposed the heaviest losses on program beneficiaries were often not those able to enact the most dramatic and costly investments in long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper contends that, in explaining reform choices as intertemporal tradeoffs, we need to employ a causal logic distinct from that used to explain retrenchment. To illustrate the argument, the paper reanalyzes a paired comparison of pension reforms from Paul Pierson’s Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment. Viewed through a temporal lens, Pierson’s puzzle of policy reform is reversed. Britain -- the case of radical retrenchment -- largely delayed the costs of population aging, while the United States -- the case of incremental cutbacks -- adopted massive, costly investments in long-term sustainability. These outcomes were shaped by institutional context, but in ways contrary to the structural effects that scholars of distributive politics have usually identified. While concentrated policy authority led politicians to address long-term policy problems through distributive means, dispersed veto power generated distributive stalemate that led politicians to invest in long-range outcomes at short-run cost.

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Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 54
Word count: 19424
Text sample:
Backing into the Future: Reconceiving Policy Reform as Intertemporal Choice Alan M. Jacobs Department of Political Science University of British Columbia C472 ­ 1866 Main Mall Vancouver B.C. V6T 1Z1 jacobs@politics.ubc.cs Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association September 2 - September 5 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. Abstract This paper makes a case for reconfiguring the analytical lens through which we compare and explain governments' public policy choices.
University Press 1978. Vogel David. National Styles of Regulation. Ithaca: Cornell University Press 1986. Weaver R. Kent. "The Politics of Blame Avoidance." Journal of Public Policy 6 no. 4 (1986): 371-398. Weber Carolyn and Aaron Wildavsky. A History of Taxation and Expenditure in the Western World. New York: Simon and Schuster 1986. Wilson Graham K. The Politics of Safety and Health: Occupational Safety and Health in the United States and Britain. New York: Oxford University Press 1985. 51 Wilson


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