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Backing into the Future: Reconceiving Policy Reform as Intertemporal Choice
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according to a range of potential criteria, such as age, income, disability, or medical need.
5
At
most, analysts have noted that social insurance schemes may entail intertemporal tradeoffs for
individuals – for instance, paying in while working for benefits in retirement – but have not
attended to the ways in which choices of financing methods can involve aggregate intertemporal
tradeoffs for societies.
While the welfare-state literature primarily focuses on the allocation of a fixed economic
pie, other fields of political-economic inquiry have viewed policy as also having important effects
on the size of the pie itself.
6
One strand of literature, for instance, has debated the effects of some
combination of wage-bargaining structure, central-bank independence, and government
partisanship on broad economic outcomes.
7
Another has focused on how alternative economic
5
Gøsta Esping-Andersen’s influential work, for instance, distinguishes among types of welfare capitalism
by the degree to which they decommodify labor, detaching individuals’ survival prospects from participation in the labor market, and the degree to which they reinforce or counteract the social stratification engendered by markets. Gøsta Esping-Andersen, The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism, (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1990). Another classic volume on welfare-state origins in Western Europe and North America provides a typical definition of the variation of interest. The editors divide the variation among welfare states into two dimensions: the degree of equality and the degree of economic security that programs provide. Peter Flora and Arnold J. Heidenheimer, eds., The Development of Welfare States in Europe and America, (New Brunswick, U.S.A.: Transaction Books, 1981). The most powerful challenges to Esping-Andersen’s typology have drawn our attention to important axes of distribution of social rights and resource claims – especially gender lines – that traditional class-based models ignored, but they remain equally focused on processes of allocation across groups. Ann Shola Orloff, "Gender and the Social Rights of Citizenship: The Comparative Analysis of Gender Relations and Welfare States," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (1993); Theda Skocpol, Protecting Soldiers and Mothers: The Political Origins of Social Policy in the United States, (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1992).
6
A focus on matters of allocation has also been central to more mainstream political-economy work.
Debates over trade openness, for instance, have paid close attention to its distributive effects. See the review of the trade literature and the research agenda put forward in James E. Alt et al., "The Political Economy of International Trade: Enduring Puzzles and an Agenda for Inquiry," Comparative Political Studies 29, no. 6 (1996). See also Jeffry Frieden, "Invested Interests: National Economic Policies in a World of Global Finance," International Organization 45, no. 4 (1991); Ronald Rogowski, "Political Cleavages and Changing Exposure to Trade," American Political Science Review 81, no. 4 (1987). The study of taxation has largely been focused on its incidence, Sven Steinmo, Taxation and Democracy: Swedish, British, and American Approaches to Financing the Modern State, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1993). See also Carolyn Weber and Aaron Wildavsky, A History of Taxation and Expenditure in the Western World, (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986). More recently, see Sven Steinmo and Duane Swank, "The New Political Economy of Taxation in Advanced Capitalist Democracies," American Journal of Political Science 46, no. 3 (2002). One important exception is Margaret Levi, Of Rule and Revenue, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988). Levi views tax policy choices, in part, as a tradeoff between current and future revenue maximization.
7
Lars Calmfors and John Driffill, "Bargaining Structure, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance,"
Economic Policy 6, no. April (1988); David R. Cameron, "Social Democracy, Corporatism, Labour
7
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according to a range of potential criteria, such as age, income, disability, or medical need.
most, analysts have noted that social insurance schemes may entail intertemporal tradeoffs for
individuals – for instance, paying in while working for benefits in retirement – but have not
attended to the ways in which choices of financing methods can involve aggregate intertemporal
tradeoffs for societies.
While the welfare-state literature primarily focuses on the allocation of a fixed economic
pie, other fields of political-economic inquiry have viewed policy as also having important effects
on the size of the pie itself.
combination of wage-bargaining structure, central-bank independence, and government
partisanship on broad economic outcomes.
5
Gøsta Esping-Andersen’s influential work, for instance, distinguishes among types of welfare capitalism
by the degree to which they decommodify labor, detaching individuals’ survival prospects from participation in the labor market, and the degree to which they reinforce or counteract the social stratification engendered by markets. Gøsta Esping-Andersen, The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism, (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1990). Another classic volume on welfare-state origins in Western Europe and North America provides a typical definition of the variation of interest. The editors divide the variation among welfare states into two dimensions: the degree of equality and the degree of economic security that programs provide. Peter Flora and Arnold J. Heidenheimer, eds., The Development of Welfare States in Europe and America, (New Brunswick, U.S.A.: Transaction Books, 1981). The most powerful challenges to Esping-Andersen’s typology have drawn our attention to important axes of distribution of social rights and resource claims – especially gender lines – that traditional class-based models ignored, but they remain equally focused on processes of allocation across groups. Ann Shola Orloff, "Gender and the Social Rights of Citizenship: The Comparative Analysis of Gender Relations and Welfare States," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (1993); Theda Skocpol, Protecting Soldiers and Mothers: The Political Origins of Social Policy in the United States, (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1992).
6
A focus on matters of allocation has also been central to more mainstream political-economy work.
Debates over trade openness, for instance, have paid close attention to its distributive effects. See the review of the trade literature and the research agenda put forward in James E. Alt et al., "The Political Economy of International Trade: Enduring Puzzles and an Agenda for Inquiry," Comparative Political Studies 29, no. 6 (1996). See also Jeffry Frieden, "Invested Interests: National Economic Policies in a World of Global Finance," International Organization 45, no. 4 (1991); Ronald Rogowski, "Political Cleavages and Changing Exposure to Trade," American Political Science Review 81, no. 4 (1987). The study of taxation has largely been focused on its incidence, Sven Steinmo, Taxation and Democracy: Swedish, British, and American Approaches to Financing the Modern State, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1993). See also Carolyn Weber and Aaron Wildavsky, A History of Taxation and Expenditure in the Western World, (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986). More recently, see Sven Steinmo and Duane Swank, "The New Political Economy of Taxation in Advanced Capitalist Democracies," American Journal of Political Science 46, no. 3 (2002). One important exception is Margaret Levi, Of Rule and Revenue, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988). Levi views tax policy choices, in part, as a tradeoff between current and future revenue maximization.
7
Lars Calmfors and John Driffill, "Bargaining Structure, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance,"
Economic Policy 6, no. April (1988); David R. Cameron, "Social Democracy, Corporatism, Labour
7
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