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Bargaining for Costs of Convergence in Exchange Rate Mechanism II: A Rubinstein Threat Game

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Abstract:

The Exchange-Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) is one of the
Maastricht nominal convergence criteria, that Central Eastern European Countries (CEECs) have to comply with before they are admitted to the European Monetary Union (EMU). However, EMU-accession is not a `free lunch' but entails so-called costs of convergence. In accordance with the `Treaty establishing the European Community' CEECs have incurred these costs. Starting from the point of view that these new European Union (EU) members are in fact credibly committed to joining the EMU for political reasons---i.e. ensuring political stability in CEECs---it is demonstrated that CEECs are enabled to pass some costs of convergence on to current EMU-members. The CEECs' leverage is brought about through exchange-rate policy: CEECs will under identifiable conditions threaten to halt the entire enlargement process by putting their exchange-rate regimes and, as a result, political stability at risk. The according stance of exchange-rate
policy is denoted as a 'threaten-thy-neighbour'-strategy. If a CEEC's brinkmanship constitutes a deterrent threat, both parties will negotiate the distribution of these costs of convergence.
In line with this rationale, the entire process of transition, in reference to the phase of ERM II, can be modelled as a two-stage threat game, which is completed by a Rubinstein-bargaining solution (RBS).

Most Common Document Word Stems:

eu (131), ceeci (99), 1 (89), cost (86), rate (75), 15 (73), eu-15 (71), exchang (67), game (66), ceec (63), polici (61), member (60), exchange-r (54), brinkmanship (52), ii (50), erm (49), converg (49), emu (44), player (44), i.e (44), polit (43),

Author's Keywords:

Threat game, Rubinstein, EMU, exchange-rate policy
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Fahrholz, Christian. "Bargaining for Costs of Convergence in Exchange Rate Mechanism II: A Rubinstein Threat Game" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Oct 19, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p61574_index.html>

APA Citation:

Fahrholz, C. , 2004-10-19 "Bargaining for Costs of Convergence in Exchange Rate Mechanism II: A Rubinstein Threat Game" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p61574_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The Exchange-Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) is one of the
Maastricht nominal convergence criteria, that Central Eastern European Countries (CEECs) have to comply with before they are admitted to the European Monetary Union (EMU). However, EMU-accession is not a `free lunch' but entails so-called costs of convergence. In accordance with the `Treaty establishing the European Community' CEECs have incurred these costs. Starting from the point of view that these new European Union (EU) members are in fact credibly committed to joining the EMU for political reasons---i.e. ensuring political stability in CEECs---it is demonstrated that CEECs are enabled to pass some costs of convergence on to current EMU-members. The CEECs' leverage is brought about through exchange-rate policy: CEECs will under identifiable conditions threaten to halt the entire enlargement process by putting their exchange-rate regimes and, as a result, political stability at risk. The according stance of exchange-rate
policy is denoted as a 'threaten-thy-neighbour'-strategy. If a CEEC's brinkmanship constitutes a deterrent threat, both parties will negotiate the distribution of these costs of convergence.
In line with this rationale, the entire process of transition, in reference to the phase of ERM II, can be modelled as a two-stage threat game, which is completed by a Rubinstein-bargaining solution (RBS).

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Text sample:
Bargaining for Costs of Convergence in Exchange Rate Mechanism II: A Rubinstein Threat Game Christian H. Fahrholz October 19 2004 Abstract The Exchange-Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) is one of the Maastricht nominal con- vergence criteria that Central Eastern European Countries (CEECs) have to comply with before they are admitted to the European Monetary Union (EMU). However EMU- accession is not a `free lunch' but entails so-called costs of convergence. In accordance with the `Treaty establishing the European Community'
Finance Discussion Papers No. 741. Obstfeld Maurice. 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises." NBER Working Paper No. 4640. Obstfeld Maurice. 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features." NBER Working Paper No. 5285. Putnam Robert D. 1988. "Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games." International Organization 42(3):427­460. Rubinstein Ariel. 1982. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model." Econo- metrica 50(1):97­110. Schelling Thomas C. 1960. Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press. Tornell Aaron and Andrīs Velasco. 1995.


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