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War Aims and War Outcomes: When Powerful States Lose Limited Wars

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Abstract:

Despite their immense war-fighting capacity, major power states failed to attain their primary political objective in almost 40% of their military operations against weak state and non-state targets since 1945. Why do strong states frequently fail to achieve even limited objectives when they use military force against vastly weaker targets? Evidence from recent research suggests that war outcomes are largely a function of strategic selection (war initiation), military-industrial capabilities, combat effectiveness, and strategy choice. But none of these factors can explain why a major power would ever lose an armed conflict with a weak target.

In sharp contrast to existing theories, I focus on the nature of the political objective being pursued to explain military intervention outcomes. I argue that relative military capabilities and relative tolerance for the costs of war affect the outcome of all wars, but that in asymmetric wars, the marginal effect of these two factors varies according to the nature of the political objective being pursued by the strong state. In particular, an actor’s destructive capacity relative to its opponent becomes less important, and each side’s tolerance for the costs of war become more important, as attainment of the actor’s political objectives becomes more dependent on target compliance. By acknowledging the critical role of war aims, this theory is able to 1) identify constraints on the military effectiveness of strong states and 2) specify the conditions under which military capabilities determine outcomes and those under which relative tolerance for costs moderates the effectiveness of force. The empirical implications of the theory are tested on an original data set of all major power military operations against both state and nonstate targets since World War II.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

state (176), object (167), militari (136), war (132), polit (113), target (93), power (91), forc (88), cost (81), major (68), strong (53), actor (52), 1 (52), depend (51), achiev (45), use (44), effect (44), intervent (40), outcom (39), capac (39), toler (37),

Author's Keywords:

asymmetric war war termination military intervention
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Name: American Political Science Association
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http://www.apsanet.org


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MLA Citation:

Sullivan, Patricia. "War Aims and War Outcomes: When Powerful States Lose Limited Wars" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, Sep 02, 2004 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p61855_index.html>

APA Citation:

Sullivan, P. , 2004-09-02 "War Aims and War Outcomes: When Powerful States Lose Limited Wars" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hilton Chicago and the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p61855_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Despite their immense war-fighting capacity, major power states failed to attain their primary political objective in almost 40% of their military operations against weak state and non-state targets since 1945. Why do strong states frequently fail to achieve even limited objectives when they use military force against vastly weaker targets? Evidence from recent research suggests that war outcomes are largely a function of strategic selection (war initiation), military-industrial capabilities, combat effectiveness, and strategy choice. But none of these factors can explain why a major power would ever lose an armed conflict with a weak target.

In sharp contrast to existing theories, I focus on the nature of the political objective being pursued to explain military intervention outcomes. I argue that relative military capabilities and relative tolerance for the costs of war affect the outcome of all wars, but that in asymmetric wars, the marginal effect of these two factors varies according to the nature of the political objective being pursued by the strong state. In particular, an actor’s destructive capacity relative to its opponent becomes less important, and each side’s tolerance for the costs of war become more important, as attainment of the actor’s political objectives becomes more dependent on target compliance. By acknowledging the critical role of war aims, this theory is able to 1) identify constraints on the military effectiveness of strong states and 2) specify the conditions under which military capabilities determine outcomes and those under which relative tolerance for costs moderates the effectiveness of force. The empirical implications of the theory are tested on an original data set of all major power military operations against both state and nonstate targets since World War II.

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Document Type: .PDF
Page count: 38
Word count: 10642
Text sample:
War Aims and War Outcomes: When Powerful States Lose Limited Wars Patricia L. Sullivan Department of Political Science University of California Davis 1 Shields Avenue Davis CA 95616 plsullivan@ucdavis.edu Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association September 2 - September 5 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. I have with me two gods Persuasion and Compulsion. ­ Themistocles Despite their immense war-fighting capacity major power states have failed to attain
31-Dec-73 Khampa guerilla groups Tibet CHN 3-Sep-54 1-May-55 ROC (Nationalist forces) Taiwan Strait CHN 3-Sep-54 1-May-55 ROC (Nationalist forces) Taiwan Strait CHN 23-Aug-58 19-Dec-58 ROC (Nationalist forces) Taiwan Strait CHN 22-Apr-59 31-Jul-60 Nepal Nepal CHN 2-Nov-61 21-Nov-62 India India CHN 1-May-69 11-Sep-69 USSR China CHN 15-Jan-74 20-Jan-74 Republic of Vietnam China CHN 17-Feb-79 17-Mar-79 DRV DRV CHN 2-Apr-84 12-Jul-84 DRV DRV CHN 21-Jul-95 25-Mar-96 Taiwan Taiwan Strait 37


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