Z:\grogger3\ddrive\Duncan\Results\Work Conditioned Welfare\APSA Version\Work Conditioned Welfare 7.doc
Printed On: 08/14/03
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Stephens 2001) That said, Gilens shows that the public's perception of the poor becomes more
sympathetic in times of economic crisis, with a smaller percentage of the population blaming
poverty on a lack of effort by those in need.(Gilens 1999) It is unclear, however, whether this
argument would imply increased sympathy for people who have been on aid for extended periods.
Depending on which of these effects dominate, the sign of the unemployment variable may be
either positive or negative.
I also include racial variables in the model because a number of scholars have suggested that
public stereotypes of the welfare population significantly affect political support for means tested
welfare programs.
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(Peffley, Hurwitz et al. 1997; Gilens 1999) In the United States, this is
commonly taken to mean that prejudices about African-American's affect the popularity of welfare
policy. Peffley et. al. (1997), for example, ran an experiment where they asked survey respondents
questions about hypothetical "welfare mothers" who were either black or white and had either
graduated from high school or not graduated from high school. They found that whites who held
negative stereotypes of blacks were less likely to say that blacks of equivalent education would try
hard to get a job in the next year in order to get out of welfare. They were also less likely to think
that a black dropout would try hard than an African-American high school graduate. And studies
that examine U.S. state AFDC/TANF benefits commonly find a correlation between the fraction of
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The source for the race variable, per-capita income, and economic sector variables is state-by-state estimates
constructed by the author based on various years of the March U.S. Current Population Survey.
Convention