2
As Janda noted in his 1990 paper positing a “Performance Theory of Change in
Political Parties,”
There is certainly a need for a change theory ... in which change is the independent
variable and performance is the dependent variable. (1990: 12)
But just as such a mission was deemed by Janda to be “outside the scope of [his] effort” in
that paper, the issue of the consequences of change has been outside the scope of most
subsequent research on party change.
2
It is the central purpose of this paper to help, albeit
in a very small way, to encourage and support the placement of “consequences of party
change” high on the agenda for future research.
Though it is still, to a large extent, an open question whether party change does, in
fact, “make any significant difference,” it is a working assumption of this paper that some –
though not all – party changes do produce significant consequences, some of which are
intended and some of which are not. It is a challenge for future research to determine the
circumstances under which certain consequences are and are not produced; it is the
challenge for this paper to develop some propositions which may help to guide such
research.
In embarking down this path, we face greater difficulties in maintaining coherence
than most such efforts, because it is normal to start with a dependent variable and develop
its theoretical explanation. In our case, we begin with the causal variable of interest –
party change – and attempt to identify and at least partially explain a range of possible
consequences, both intended and unintended. To lessen the difficulties that this implies,
we have chosen to limit our search for mediating factors (the most important component
for our work) to just party-level variables; as will be noted and further explained below, we
virtually ignore variation in the parties’ environments.
Because of the nature of this “theory building” (or perhaps better: agenda setting)
exercise, we begin with discussion of some important concepts and terms, next state our
basic assumptions, and then identify dependent variables. When all of that has been done,
we will be ready to develop what we consider to be among the most important mediating
factors in various party change->consequence relationships. In the process of doing so, we
2
There are, of course, exceptions. One that is particularly noteworthy is the recent
special issue of Party Politics Journal (2001) devoted in large part to research on
consequences of changes in candidate selection procedures. Though the articles are in that
chapter are exemplary, candidate selection procedures are just one of the many areas in
which parties have recently undergone change.
Convention