Author's Keywords: Seat Change U.S. House Elections	Convention All Academic Convention makes running your annual conference simple and cost effective. It is your online solution for abstract management, peer review, and scheduling for your annual meeting or convention. Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62376_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Arseneau, Robert. "Seat Change in U.S. House Elections, 1954-2000" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 27, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62376_index.html>

Arseneau, R. , 2003-08-27 "Seat Change in U.S. House Elections, 1954-2000" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62376_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Previous research on the outcome of U.S. House elections has presented a fairly large number of multivariate seat change models. The model presented here differs from earlier efforts in two principal ways. First, it is more comprehensive. Previous seat change models have demonstrated the causal importance of a range of variables including: election year status (on-year or off-year election), presidential approval, macropartisanship, national political events and challenger quality in incumbent contested races. However, no previous model includes all of these variables. The model presented here includes each of them along with a measure of relative challenger quality in open races. Second, this analysis uses two alternative measures of the dependent variable seat change. The first or "traditional" measure, which is used in previous models, measures seat change in terms of change that occurs from election-to-election. The second, or "adjusted" measure, takes into account inter-election change in party line-ups that occurs because of the outcome of special elections and/or change in party by members of Congress. The time frame for the analysis is the 1954-2002 elections. Using the "adjusted" measure of seat change, the average error in prediction of seat change is roughly three and one-third seats. Using data from the 1954-2000 elections the model was used to predict seat change in the 2002 election "after-the-fact." Using the "adjusted" measure of seat change, the model predicted a 6.73 seat gain for the Republican party. Going into the 2002 elections, the Republicans held 223 seats. On election day they gained an additional 6 seats.

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