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Before and After: Campaign Influences on Voting Choices at the 2002 New Zealand Election
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Before and After:
Campaign Influences on Voting Choices at the 2002 New Zealand
Election
Jack Vowles
University of Auckland
ABSTRACT
Using a panel of voters interviewed in rolling cross-sections during the campaign anddata collected from those same individuals post-election, this paper establishes theextent of campaign vote choice volatility at the 2002 General Election in NewZealand and tests potential explanations, most notably changes in leader preferencesand issue orienations, together with the effects of three major campaign events.
The 2002 New Zealand Election Studies was funded by the Foundation for Research,Science, and Technology. I acknowledge the assistance of John Stephenson. Forcorrespondence contact Jack Vowles, Department of Political Studies, University ofAuckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand, phone +64 9 373 7599, fax+64 9 373 7499,
Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political ScienceAssociation, August 28-August 31, 2003. Copyright by the American PoliticalScience Association
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Before and After:
Campaign Influences on Voting Choices at the 2002 New Zealand
Election
Jack Vowles
University of Auckland
ABSTRACT
Using a panel of voters interviewed in rolling cross-sections during the campaign and
data collected from those same individuals post-election, this paper establishes the
extent of campaign vote choice volatility at the 2002 General Election in New
Zealand and tests potential explanations, most notably changes in leader preferences
and issue orienations, together with the effects of three major campaign events.
The 2002 New Zealand Election Studies was funded by the Foundation for Research,
Science, and Technology. I acknowledge the assistance of John Stephenson. For
correspondence contact Jack Vowles, Department of Political Studies, University of
Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand, phone +64 9 373 7599, fax
+64 9 373 7499,
Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science
Association, August 28-August 31, 2003. Copyright by the American Political
Science Association
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