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16
Table A2 Estimates and Standard Errors, Binomial Logstic Regressions, Table 3
Labour
National
Act
b
se
b
se
b
se
Trend
-0.01
0.02
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.04
Female
0.12
0.11
-0.09
0.15
-0.12
0.23
Age
0.02 **
0.00
0.01 **
0.00
-0.01
0.01
Union House
0.45 **
0.16
-0.26
0.26
0.33
0.34
Manual House
-0.29 *
0.13
-0.54 **
0.18
-0.45
0.29
Party ID
0.85 **
0.13
1.16 **
0.17
1.45 *
0.57
Campaign Intent
2.72 **
0.14
2.77 **
0.18
3.59 **
0.28
Leader Change
0.61 **
0.14
0.79 **
0.16
-1.80 **
0.63
Issue Change
0.28 *
0.11
0.23
0.14
1.90 **
0.27
Poll Change
-0.08
0.05
0.00
0.05
0.26
0.17
Campbell
-0.27
0.27
0.19
0.35
-0.85
0.51
Painting
-0.63 *
0.28
0.40
0.35
0.00
0.56
Worm
-0.57 *
0.23
-0.05
0.30
0.61
0.42
Constant
-4.64 **
0.76
-4.38 **
0.45
-4.64 **
1.04
Cases/concordant
2363
80.6
2363
88.4
2354
95.1
R-squared
.33
.39
.34
NZ First
Green
United
b
se
b
se
b
se
Trend
-0.05
0.03
0.03
0.03
-0.05
0.03
Female
0.05
0.19
-0.16
0.24
-0.60 *
0.22
Age
0.02 **
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
Union House
0.23
0.28
0.02
0.33
0.37
0.30
Manual House
0.09
0.21
-0.40
0.29
-0.51 *
0.26
Party ID
0.69
0.44
1.31 **
0.34
-1.17
1.33
Campaign Intent
3.70 **
0.25
3.83 **
0.27
4.96 **
0.53
Leader Change
0.72 *
0.27
-0.46
0.51
1.80 **
0.44
Issue Change
1.56 **
0.24
1.04 **
0.31
2.76 **
0.29
Poll Change
-0.08
0.12
-0.14
0.11
0.08
0.09
Campbell
0.59
0.46
-0.82
0.63
-0.54
0.45
Painting
-0.04
0.43
0.68
0.63
-0.26
0.54
Worm
-0.79 *
0.40
0.29
0.44
-0.03
0.42
Constant
-2.97 **
0.98
-4.63 **
0.57
-2.99 **
0.69
Cases/concodrant
2363
93.5
2363
95.9
2363
95.5
R-Squared
.34
.43
.24
For details on methodology and the full questionnaire see
www.nzes.org/2002
..
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