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Before and After: Campaign Influences on Voting Choices at the 2002 New Zealand Election
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Figure 4 shows Clark's popularity falling as the campaign went on, but recoveringdramatically post-election. To some extent, this may be an artifact of winning(although survey respondents were asked to indicate what their preference had beenon election day). The steepest drop in Clark preferences appears to have taken placeover 'corngate.' Contrary to the expectations of many, National leader Bill Englishpreferences grew over the campaign. Winston Peters ended up about where he began.The 'worm' debate had an obvious effect not only on United Future voting intentionsbut also on Dunne's personal rating (although this fell back rapidly after the election).
Figure 5 Issue Most Important Personally, 2002 Election Campaign
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
Per cent most important
June 23
25
27
29
July 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
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19
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23
27
Education
Health
Law/Order
Tax
Environment
Economy
Establishing the role of issues or party choices related to substantive policy
preferences in swaying opinions and consequent votes is perhaps as complex andvexed as debating the role of campaigns. Many, if not most voters lack the knowledgefor them to comprehensively assess the policy platforms of competing parties.However, they can swayed by party discourses that mobilize their sentiments andvalues and, where knowledgeable about particular issues, may be able to assess someparty claims critically. But this holds true for a minority only (Zaller 1992). However,campaigns are best seen as a process by which some voters, at least, may acquirepolitical information that will mobilize them to cast a ballot (Alvarez 1998), andperhaps one different from those they have cast before. Meanwhile political partiesseek to sell their policies to the voters by emphasizing those they have reason tobelieve will appeal to their target groups, and downplay those on which they have lessconfidence of gaining a response. ‘Elections are not just about how voters choose.They are also about how parties and leaders shape the choices from which the choiceis made’ (Johnston, Blais, Brady, and Crete 1992, 3).
The NZES campaign wave had no space for a detailed battery of issue
questions, but employed two open-ended questions, asking respondents to identify themost important problem facing New Zealand, and the most single important issue forthem personally in the election. The most important issue personally is taken as the
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8
Figure 4 shows Clark's popularity falling as the campaign went on, but recovering
dramatically post-election. To some extent, this may be an artifact of winning
(although survey respondents were asked to indicate what their preference had been
on election day). The steepest drop in Clark preferences appears to have taken place
over 'corngate.' Contrary to the expectations of many, National leader Bill English
preferences grew over the campaign. Winston Peters ended up about where he began.
The 'worm' debate had an obvious effect not only on United Future voting intentions
but also on Dunne's personal rating (although this fell back rapidly after the election).
Figure 5 Issue Most Important Personally, 2002 Election Campaign
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
Per cent most important
June 23
25
27
29
July 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
27
Education
Health
Law/Order
Tax
Environment
Economy
Establishing the role of issues or party choices related to substantive policy
preferences in swaying opinions and consequent votes is perhaps as complex and
vexed as debating the role of campaigns. Many, if not most voters lack the knowledge
for them to comprehensively assess the policy platforms of competing parties.
However, they can swayed by party discourses that mobilize their sentiments and
values and, where knowledgeable about particular issues, may be able to assess some
party claims critically. But this holds true for a minority only (Zaller 1992). However,
campaigns are best seen as a process by which some voters, at least, may acquire
political information that will mobilize them to cast a ballot (Alvarez 1998), and
perhaps one different from those they have cast before. Meanwhile political parties
seek to sell their policies to the voters by emphasizing those they have reason to
believe will appeal to their target groups, and downplay those on which they have less
confidence of gaining a response. ‘Elections are not just about how voters choose.
They are also about how parties and leaders shape the choices from which the choice
is made’ (Johnston, Blais, Brady, and Crete 1992, 3).
The NZES campaign wave had no space for a detailed battery of issue
questions, but employed two open-ended questions, asking respondents to identify the
most important problem facing New Zealand, and the most single important issue for
them personally in the election. The most important issue personally is taken as the
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