Racing To the Front: The Effect of Frontloading on Presidential Primary Turnout
Abstract: Since 1988, there has been an increasing trend for states to schedule their nominating
events earlier in the campaign, a procedure known as frontloading. We focus on how
frontloading and the consequent “ending” of the nomination campaign alters voter turnout in
states’ primary elections. We examine this in several ways. First, we investigate how the
effective “end” date of the campaign has changed as the nomination system has become more
frontloaded. Next, we use aggregate data to assess how the timing of a state’s primary, relative
to the effective end of the nomination campaign, influences turnout. We argue that voters
consider the dynamics of the nomination race and their position in those dynamics when
choosing whether or not to participate. We find that state-level primary turnout depends, in
important ways, on states’ positions in the campaign season. Finally, we use the results of our
model to simulate national turnout under different scenarios of frontloading.
Convention