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September 11 and the U.S. House Elections of 2002
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Abstract
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, shocking and unprecedented as they
were, nonetheless affected the 2002 elections in ways that are fully consistent with the standard political science literature on midterm elections. They radically altered the national political context in ways that uniformly helped the Republican cause, most importantly by giving President Bush the opportunity to transform public perceptions of his leadership. His response to the crisis created a huge rally in public support, the legacy of which was still perceptible more than a year later. At the time of the 2002 election, Bush’s overall approval ratings continued to be buoyed up by his role as leader in the war on terrorism, overshadowing the much less enthusiastic assessments of his performance on the economy.
Bush’s strong job approval rating helped Republican congressional candidates in
several identifiable ways. It discouraged strong Democratic challenges. According to NES data, it also contributed to a modest (and historically unusual) increase in Republican party identification and a larger than usual Republican turnout advantage. This combination of effects, plus the president’s record high approval ratings among voters identifying with his party, gave the Republicans an exceptionally friendly electorate for 2002. Changes in the composition of the electorate were crucial to Republican gains in House voting, because the net vote change among citizens who voted in contested House elections in both the 2000 and the 2002 elections did not favor Republicans.
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| | Authors: Jacobson, Gary. and Cain, Sean. |
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Abstract
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, shocking and unprecedented as they
were, nonetheless affected the 2002 elections in ways that are fully consistent with the
standard political science literature on midterm elections. They radically altered the
national political context in ways that uniformly helped the Republican cause, most
importantly by giving President Bush the opportunity to transform public perceptions of
his leadership. His response to the crisis created a huge rally in public support, the legacy
of which was still perceptible more than a year later. At the time of the 2002 election,
Bush’s overall approval ratings continued to be buoyed up by his role as leader in the war
on terrorism, overshadowing the much less enthusiastic assessments of his performance
on the economy.
Bush’s strong job approval rating helped Republican congressional candidates in
several identifiable ways. It discouraged strong Democratic challenges. According to
NES data, it also contributed to a modest (and historically unusual) increase in
Republican party identification and a larger than usual Republican turnout advantage.
This combination of effects, plus the president’s record high approval ratings among
voters identifying with his party, gave the Republicans an exceptionally friendly
electorate for 2002. Changes in the composition of the electorate were crucial to
Republican gains in House voting, because the net vote change among citizens who voted
in contested House elections in both the 2000 and the 2002 elections did not favor
Republicans.
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