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Deconstructing Presidential Approval: The Differential Impact of the Issue Agenda on Independents and Partisans
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Abstract
In this paper, we contribute to the presidential approval literature in two ways. First, we
demonstrate that issues, specifically party-owned issues, play a role in determining the
probability of approving the president at the individual level, and the president’s overall approval
rating in the aggregate. Second, we provide evidence to suggest that a certain type of voter,
politically sophisticated independents, are most likely to incorporate party-owned issue concerns
into assessments of approval, again at both the individual and aggregate levels. Our findings lead
us to conclude that political variables, such as issue concerns and media coverage, on which
presidents can exert influence, make an important contribution to presidential approval,
independent of economic performance and events, over which presidents often have little or no
control.
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| | Authors: Holian, David. and Wolf, Michael. |
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Abstract
In this paper, we contribute to the presidential approval literature in two ways. First, we
demonstrate that issues, specifically party-owned issues, play a role in determining the
probability of approving the president at the individual level, and the president’s overall approval
rating in the aggregate. Second, we provide evidence to suggest that a certain type of voter,
politically sophisticated independents, are most likely to incorporate party-owned issue concerns
into assessments of approval, again at both the individual and aggregate levels. Our findings lead
us to conclude that political variables, such as issue concerns and media coverage, on which
presidents can exert influence, make an important contribution to presidential approval,
independent of economic performance and events, over which presidents often have little or no
control.
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