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participate more as neighborhood income rises in Orange, Broward and Pinellas
Counties.
As for the racial and ethnic character of Florida neighborhoods, it is somewhat
surprising to us that Democrats do not significantly benefit from increasing African
American concentrations, except in Pinellas County (St. Petersburg). In Palm Beach
County, the participation of Democratic registrants actually falls off dramatically in
African American neighborhoods. Republican turnout, however, drops as the proportion
of African Americans increases in virtually all counties, but particularly in Broward,
Hillsborough and Palm Beach.
In contrast, GOP turnout is not adversely affected by increasing Hispanic
concentration, and is actually benefited in Broward County, where the Hispanic
population is largely Cuban-American. Still, even in Broward, the Democratic advantage
accruing from increasing Hispanic populations is significant. In other words, the
mobilization of Republicans in the Latino neighborhoods of Broward did not give the
GOP an edge—it merely helped them to avoid falling further behind.
The effects by gender and even age largely confirm our expectations, with a few
small twists. First, registered women were more likely to turn out than men only in
Broward and Palm Beach Counties, where the odds coefficients suggest that being a
woman increased the odds of voting by a factor of 1.22 and 1.12, respectively. Second,
women in neighborhoods with higher proportions of college educated residents were
more likely to turn out, particularly in Hillsborough, Palm Beach and Pinellas. Third, we
find that women living in more Republican areas participated more than men in every
Florida county but one. Fourth and finally, younger voters (18-29) are less likely to vote
Convention