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Neighborhood Effects on Voter Turnout: What Voter Lists Can Teach Us
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Abstract
Drawing from official lists of registered voters for 14 major counties in seven swing states (including Florida) from the 2000 presidential election, we seek a more accurate neighborhood-by-neighborhood picture of how the participation of commonly targeted subgroups varies. Our goals here are at once both theoretical and practical. On the theoretical side, we want to evaluate what these voter lists can teach us about political participation, above and beyond the established literature’s take on the effects of context on the decision to vote. Our findings bear most directly on the utility of the interaction of neighborhood characteristics and a number of predictable correlates of turnout. On the practical side, we demonstrate how strategists can use voter lists in conjunction with a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling (HGLM) to make useful predictions about political behavior, thereby greatly enhancing the utility of this resource to political campaigns.
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| | Authors: Gimpel, James., Dyck, Joshua. and Shaw, Daron. |
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Abstract
Drawing from official lists of registered voters for 14 major counties in seven swing states
(including Florida) from the 2000 presidential election, we seek a more accurate
neighborhood-by-neighborhood picture of how the participation of commonly targeted
subgroups varies. Our goals here are at once both theoretical and practical. On the
theoretical side, we want to evaluate what these voter lists can teach us about political
participation, above and beyond the established literature’s take on the effects of context on
the decision to vote. Our findings bear most directly on the utility of the interaction of
neighborhood characteristics and a number of predictable correlates of turnout. On the
practical side, we demonstrate how strategists can use voter lists in conjunction with a
Geographic Information System (GIS) and Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling
(HGLM) to make useful predictions about political behavior, thereby greatly enhancing the
utility of this resource to political campaigns.
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