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citizens believe that they or their opponent possess some attributes when in fact they do
not. Cognitive psychology, as well as the work cited above on public opinion, suggests a
citizens’ certitude may not be commensurate with possession of their level of actual
knowledge. Individuals’ general familiarity often may lead them to be more certain that
they know a candidate’s ideological orientation as opposed to more detailed knowledge.
Hence, a more conclusive analysis on the impact of television ads requires estimating the
impact of ads on citizens’ knowledge.
However, cognitive psychology suggests a tenuous link between citizens’
certainty that they know specific political facts and actually knowing those facts. A
common finding in much psychological research is that individuals believe they know
more than they actually do (Allwood and Montgomery, 1987; Fischoff, Slovic, and
Lichtenstein, 1977; Griffin and Tversky, 1992; Nisbett and Ross, 1980; Nisbett and
Wilson, 1977; Slovic and Lichtenstein, 1971). Individuals strive for consistency between
their beliefs and preferences. When beliefs are strongly held individuals are likely to
assume the facts support their preferences rather than acknowledge the potential for
inconsistency between the two. This is perhaps even more likely to occur in defining a
candidates’ ideological orientation, a computationally difficult task. Evidence of
individuals’ overconfidence in their knowledge of political facts is presented by
Kuklinski et al. (2000) and Koch (2003). Frequent viewing of political commercials
about a candidate’s issue positions may lead citizens to believe they know the candidates’
ideological orientation.
Campaign Ads and Perceptual Accuracy
Convention