but in addressing blacks each speech focuses on equalizing schools.
16
What is especially interesting for our purposes is not only how infrequently crime in
general was raised but also more specifically the use of Horton and the furlough issue. Do Bush
and Dukakis talk about furloughs or Horton in these stump speeches? The answer is, again, not
much. Bush does mention the furlough issue nine times, claiming he does not think first degree
murderers should be eligible for weekend passes and that he does not believe in giving get out of
jail free cards.
17
Moreover, all but one of these mentions were in speeches targeted to white
audiences. By contrast, Dukakis mentions furloughs only twice, clearly not providing much of a
defense against the Bush attack while on the stump. Horton’s name itself is mentioned only once
by each candidate in the speeches we coded. (While this seems low, it is possible that merely
raising the issue of furloughs may have been enough to invoke the story, the image of Horton,
and his race for citizens familiar with the story and picture from news accounts.) In contrast to
other aspects of the campaign and in contrast to what was being done by independent groups and
state parties (the advertising campaign as well as flyers distributed in a number of states) the
furlough issue and Horton were not dominating Bush’s campaign speeches.
These findings would seem counter to claim by Jamieson (1992) that Bush was
recounting the Horton story almost daily on the stump (p.23). However, timing of th
is dataset
(September 1 through election day) may play a role. The National Security Political Action
Committee ad showing Horton’s picture began airing in the second week in September and the
16
Dukakis raises crime, education, affirmative action and welfare in a greater percentage of speeches to non-white
audiences than white audiences though the difference is not significant except in case of affirmative action. Bush
was just as likely to raise crime issues and significantly more likely to talk about education, welfare and taxes with
non-white audiences. However, such comparisons are merely suggestive given the small numbers and the fact that
so many of these are targeted at mixed race audiences.
17
Based on search for the terms furlough, prison and jail. All mentions of furloughs are not necessarily coded as
punitive crime discussion (basic statements not framed as punitive measure) or even as a substantive mention of the
crime issue (recall we only code when more than a single sentence on the issue). All but three of the speeches in
which furloughs were mentioned are coded as a discussion of crime being present. Of those coded as crime, all but
Convention