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Parsing Partisanship and Partisan Defection in the Postwar US House
Unformatted Document Text:  Logistic Regression Predicting Party Defection HST DDE JFK LBJ RMN GRF JEC RWR Democrat -0.144** -0.579** -1.200** -0.325** -0.329** -0.828** Electoral Margin -0.205** -0.381** 0.429** 0.316** 0.094** 0.001 Democrat X Margin 0.159** 0.097 -0.465** -0.299** -0.034 0.059* Southern 0.306** 0.247** -0.301** -0.207** -0.357** -0.345** Democrat X Southern 0.566** 0.798** 1.736** 1.100** 1.001** 0.847** Social Welfare Topic 0.178** 0.083** 0.173** -0.023** 0.036** 0.007 Agriculture Topic 0.018 -0.166 0.084** 0.177** 0.332** 0.148** Civil Liberties Topic 0.420** 0.213** 0.155** 0.169** 0.146** 0.110** Foreign/Defense Topic 0.126** 0.356** 0.267** 0.218** 0.190** 0.031** Percent Blue Collar -0.672** -0.072 -0.893** -0.325** -0.449** -0.702** Dem. X % Blue Collar -0.114 0.331* 1.493** 0.321** 0.862** 1.589** Tenure 0.065** 0.041** -0.023* -0.001 -0.078** -0.018** Percent Black 0.636* -0.810** 0.721** 0.013 0.282** 0.448** Democrat X % Black -0.407 1.327** 0.176 -0.039 -0.830** -0.656** Member of “Prestige” Ctte. -0.004 -0.031* -0.114** -0.081** -0.158** -0.101** Member of Agriculture Ctte. 0.003 -0.016** 0.094** 0.101** 0.049** 0.004 Ag. Ctte X Ag. Topic -0.005 -0.221** -0.648** -0.121** -0.237** -0.094* Constant -1.360** -1.174** -1.130** -1.065** -1.068** -0.861** Nagelkerke R Square 0.045 0.042 0.093 0.035 0.022 0.019 ** p<.01 * p<.05

Authors: Singer, Daniel.
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Logistic Regression Predicting Party Defection
HST
DDE
JFK LBJ
RMN GRF
JEC
RWR
Democrat
-0.144**
-0.579**
-1.200**
-0.325**
-0.329**
-0.828**
Electoral Margin
-0.205**
-0.381**
0.429**
0.316**
0.094**
0.001
Democrat X Margin
0.159**
0.097
-0.465**
-0.299**
-0.034
0.059*
Southern
0.306**
0.247**
-0.301**
-0.207**
-0.357**
-0.345**
Democrat X Southern
0.566**
0.798**
1.736**
1.100**
1.001**
0.847**
Social Welfare Topic
0.178**
0.083**
0.173**
-0.023**
0.036**
0.007
Agriculture Topic
0.018
-0.166
0.084**
0.177**
0.332**
0.148**
Civil Liberties Topic
0.420**
0.213**
0.155**
0.169**
0.146**
0.110**
Foreign/Defense Topic
0.126**
0.356**
0.267**
0.218**
0.190**
0.031**
Percent Blue Collar
-0.672**
-0.072
-0.893**
-0.325**
-0.449**
-0.702**
Dem. X % Blue Collar
-0.114
0.331*
1.493**
0.321**
0.862**
1.589**
Tenure
0.065**
0.041**
-0.023*
-0.001
-0.078**
-0.018**
Percent Black
0.636*
-0.810**
0.721**
0.013
0.282**
0.448**
Democrat X % Black
-0.407
1.327**
0.176
-0.039
-0.830**
-0.656**
Member of “Prestige” Ctte.
-0.004
-0.031*
-0.114**
-0.081**
-0.158**
-0.101**
Member of Agriculture Ctte.
0.003
-0.016**
0.094**
0.101**
0.049**
0.004
Ag. Ctte X Ag. Topic
-0.005
-0.221**
-0.648**
-0.121**
-0.237**
-0.094*
Constant
-1.360**
-1.174**
-1.130**
-1.065**
-1.068**
-0.861**
Nagelkerke R Square
0.045
0.042
0.093
0.035
0.022
0.019
** p<.01 * p<.05


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