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Logistic Regression Predicting Party Defection
HST
DDE
JFK LBJ
RMN GRF
JEC
RWR
Democrat
-0.144**
-0.579**
-1.200**
-0.325**
-0.329**
-0.828**
Electoral Margin
-0.205**
-0.381**
0.429**
0.316**
0.094**
0.001
Democrat X Margin
0.159**
0.097
-0.465**
-0.299**
-0.034
0.059*
Southern
0.306**
0.247**
-0.301**
-0.207**
-0.357**
-0.345**
Democrat X Southern
0.566**
0.798**
1.736**
1.100**
1.001**
0.847**
Social Welfare Topic
0.178**
0.083**
0.173**
-0.023**
0.036**
0.007
Agriculture Topic
0.018
-0.166
0.084**
0.177**
0.332**
0.148**
Civil Liberties Topic
0.420**
0.213**
0.155**
0.169**
0.146**
0.110**
Foreign/Defense Topic
0.126**
0.356**
0.267**
0.218**
0.190**
0.031**
Percent Blue Collar
-0.672**
-0.072
-0.893**
-0.325**
-0.449**
-0.702**
Dem. X % Blue Collar
-0.114
0.331*
1.493**
0.321**
0.862**
1.589**
Tenure
0.065**
0.041**
-0.023*
-0.001
-0.078**
-0.018**
Percent Black
0.636*
-0.810**
0.721**
0.013
0.282**
0.448**
Democrat X % Black
-0.407
1.327**
0.176
-0.039
-0.830**
-0.656**
Member of “Prestige” Ctte.
-0.004
-0.031*
-0.114**
-0.081**
-0.158**
-0.101**
Member of Agriculture Ctte.
0.003
-0.016**
0.094**
0.101**
0.049**
0.004
Ag. Ctte X Ag. Topic
-0.005
-0.221**
-0.648**
-0.121**
-0.237**
-0.094*
Constant
-1.360**
-1.174**
-1.130**
-1.065**
-1.068**
-0.861**
Nagelkerke R Square
0.045
0.042
0.093
0.035
0.022
0.019
** p<.01 * p<.05
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