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Of Friends and Foes: Reputation, History, and Interstate Conflict
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Of Friends and Foes
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Mark J.C. Crescenzi
Department of Political Science
University of North CarolinaChapel Hill, NC 27599-3265
## email not listed ##
August 8, 2003
Abstract
In international politics, states learn from the behavior of other nations. This
includes the behavior of states towards the other states in the international system.Typically, however, researchers assume that a pair of states behaves independentlyfrom other dyads in the system. This article relaxes this assumption, and I develop amodel of how states learn from these extra-dyadic ties and present a theory of how thislearning affects the conflict process. I then investigate whether a dyad is more likelyto experience conflict if one of the states has hostile ties with other states similar to itsdyadic partner. The hypotheses derived from the theory are tested empirically acrossall dyads from 1817-1992 (as well as a subset of politically relevant dyads) using survivalanalysis. The empirical results strongly indicate that states do engage in this learningbehavior, and that the extra-dyadic interaction of states has a significant bearing uponthe likelihood of dyadic conflict.
∗
Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August
28–August 31, 2003. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. Special thanks to GeorgeRabinowitz for his help with data preparation, and to Andrew Enterline for inspiration. The data used herecan be found at http://www.unc.edu/
∼crescenz/research/. Empirical analysis was conducted using STATA
8.0 (StataCorp, 2003). Data assembly was conducted with the help of EUGene 2.4 (Bennett and Stam, 2000)Any errors remain the responsibility of the author.
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| | Authors: Crescenzi, Mark J.C. |
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Of Friends and Foes
∗
Mark J.C. Crescenzi
Department of Political Science
University of North Carolina
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3265
## email not listed ##
August 8, 2003
Abstract
In international politics, states learn from the behavior of other nations. This
includes the behavior of states towards the other states in the international system.
Typically, however, researchers assume that a pair of states behaves independently
from other dyads in the system. This article relaxes this assumption, and I develop a
model of how states learn from these extra-dyadic ties and present a theory of how this
learning affects the conflict process. I then investigate whether a dyad is more likely
to experience conflict if one of the states has hostile ties with other states similar to its
dyadic partner. The hypotheses derived from the theory are tested empirically across
all dyads from 1817-1992 (as well as a subset of politically relevant dyads) using survival
analysis. The empirical results strongly indicate that states do engage in this learning
behavior, and that the extra-dyadic interaction of states has a significant bearing upon
the likelihood of dyadic conflict.
∗
Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August
28–August 31, 2003. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. Special thanks to George
Rabinowitz for his help with data preparation, and to Andrew Enterline for inspiration. The data used here
can be found at http://www.unc.edu/
∼crescenz/research/. Empirical analysis was conducted using STATA
8.0 (StataCorp, 2003). Data assembly was conducted with the help of EUGene 2.4 (Bennett and Stam, 2000)
Any errors remain the responsibility of the author.
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