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as an even stronger leader than before? In this section I consider the effects of the past seven
months on four key sets of actors in the British political system:
1) The electorate as a whole
2) The Labour Party, both the parliamentary party and at the constituency level
3) The prime minister and his Cabinet
4) The opposition parties
What changes can be observed in each of these since early 2003? And, what do these changes
suggest for the future of Blair, his Labour government and domestic policy reform?
The Electorate
One of the more disturbing trends in public opinion for Blair during the first half of 2003
undoubtedly was the fact that the vast majority of middle England voters were opposed to the
war and, as a result, were generally unhappy with him as their leader. These voters were Blair’s
“bread and butter” in his two electoral landslides—without them the sort of power placed in the
hands of the Labour Party would have been very different. Indeed, there might have been no
power in the first place without the support of middle England, and the Labour Party’s future
electoral prospects could be dampened if these moderate voters remain disaffected. In addition,
many of the Labour government’s policies that perturbed middle England voters before the war
(such as asylum, crime, health and education) have not changed and, absent some significant
reversals on these fronts, the outlook for Labour with respect to recapturing their support does
not seem good. In turn, middle Englanders’ unhappiness does not bode well for the sort of
radical reform many would argue Blair needs to pursue to solve the country’s most pressing
domestic problems. By their very nature, these voters are not inclined toward radicalism, so if
Convention