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position of strength would be sobered by the difficult tasks that lay ahead: completing
constitutional reform, creating foundation hospitals and improving the delivery of care by the
National Health Service; securing support for the implementation of top-up fees for universities;
launching the euro referendum campaign and achieving an affirmative vote; solving the
transportation crisis—the list goes on and on. None of these would be easily achieved by a prime
minister at the height of his authority overseeing a unified majority government (as Blair himself
experienced from 1997-2002). For a prime minister who has lost the trust and confidence of
many in both the majority party and the wider electorate, accomplishing these tasks seems well
nigh impossible. Further, if such problems are not effectively addressed, the party’s electoral
chances will certainly decrease. If they fail to fix these domestic problems, the electorate may
become even more disgruntled and convince themselves that it is time for a change, regardless of
who the alternative is.
From January to July of 2003, Blair watched the political capital he had worked so hard
to build up gradually become depleted and by August he stood on extremely shaky ground. If in
fact this coalition does begin to splinter into its component parts, if Blair does not regain the
electorate’s trust, if increasing numbers of voters seem apathetic, angry or alienated, and if those
who oppose him effectively block his most crucial domestic reforms, the party’s electoral
chances will become diminished—perhaps not going so far as to rob them of a parliamentary
majority (this will depend on how widespread each of these becomes and how much progress the
opposition parties make), but certainly enough to significantly reduce its size. Losing the
electorate’s trust, failing to seem competent, appearing internally divided and neglecting their
core constituents all combined to cost the Conservative’s their hold on power by 1997. There is
nothing to suggest that history cannot repeat itself for Tony Blair. Yes, the opposition at present
Convention