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Abstract
In this paper I expand the Issue Evolution theory of Carmines and
Stimson (1989) in two directions. First I expand it to two newer is-
sue conflicts than the racial case of the original. Then I use issue
evolution—and some assumptions about two-party politics—to pro-
duce a conclusion about the expected dimensionality of the issue space
in American politics. That conclusion, that the expected number of
dimensions is one plus the residue of not fully evolved issues, predicts
the weak two dimensional solution that emerges from analysis of the
dynamics of the issue space (public policy mood).
A second major analysis begins with the discrepancy between op-
erational and symbolic ideology, locating a very large proportion of the
electorate which is operationally liberal and symbolically conservative.
I argue that these “conflicted conservatives”—available as voters to
both parties—provide the key dynamic for change of American elec-
tion outcomes.
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