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Macro-Politics: The Dimensions and Dynamics of Public Opinion
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new line are now an uncomfortable minority in the party.
A period of awkwardness for the out-of-line faction follows. Not just
that they are sitting on their hands when the applause line for the new posi-tion comes, they are sometimes working against their party colleagues, forceto ally with the opposition to remain true to their convictions. Chances arethat they represent constituencies that support their views, for example,pro-life Democrats representing ethnic Catholic constituencies in the north-east. Out of line, they cannot aspire to leadership roles in their nationalparty. Although their colleagues understand the awkwardness of the situa-tion, they would still have to oppose those who oppose the party’s stand.
The out-of-line opponents nonetheless might hold out, even for a long
career in politics. This will particularly be the case if they have electoralsupport for their position. When they leave office is when things are likelyfinally to change. Those from their own party who replace them will usuallybe aligned with the party’s new position (often no longer very new). Allthe things that made it awkward and difficult for their predecessors arereasons that the new candidates will find it advantageous to align with theparty. And one need not be cynical. They might align because they believe.Candidates of a new generation that comes along after an issue evolution isin progress get to choose their party. They will not chose one in which theirviews are misfit.
Story 2: Voters Voters too will divide pro, con, or neutral. But mostwill have far less intense preferences than do the professional politicians, andnone will have a public commitment to a prior position. As compared to theprofessionals, then, the neutral segment will be far more numerous. Thusthe voters can move to support their party’s new position far more easilythan can the more rooted professionals in politics. Fewer will be out of linein the immediate aftermath of the critical moment.
Out of line voters may feel some discomfort, but don’t face the practi-
cal difficulties of professional politicians. Some will remain with their partyand out of line with its new position for a lifetime. New voters will comeon the scene without previous loyalties and find it easier to align correctly.They develop support for the party positions, both old and new, in theprocess of cementing a bond with their party. So population replacementeventually produces alignment.
Voters then begin to enforce issue discipline on politicians. The mech-
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new line are now an uncomfortable minority in the party.
A period of awkwardness for the out-of-line faction follows. Not just
that they are sitting on their hands when the applause line for the new posi-
tion comes, they are sometimes working against their party colleagues, force
to ally with the opposition to remain true to their convictions. Chances are
that they represent constituencies that support their views, for example,
pro-life Democrats representing ethnic Catholic constituencies in the north-
east. Out of line, they cannot aspire to leadership roles in their national
party. Although their colleagues understand the awkwardness of the situa-
tion, they would still have to oppose those who oppose the party’s stand.
The out-of-line opponents nonetheless might hold out, even for a long
career in politics. This will particularly be the case if they have electoral
support for their position. When they leave office is when things are likely
finally to change. Those from their own party who replace them will usually
be aligned with the party’s new position (often no longer very new). All
the things that made it awkward and difficult for their predecessors are
reasons that the new candidates will find it advantageous to align with the
party. And one need not be cynical. They might align because they believe.
Candidates of a new generation that comes along after an issue evolution is
in progress get to choose their party. They will not chose one in which their
views are misfit.
Story 2: Voters Voters too will divide pro, con, or neutral. But most
will have far less intense preferences than do the professional politicians, and
none will have a public commitment to a prior position. As compared to the
professionals, then, the neutral segment will be far more numerous. Thus
the voters can move to support their party’s new position far more easily
than can the more rooted professionals in politics. Fewer will be out of line
in the immediate aftermath of the critical moment.
Out of line voters may feel some discomfort, but don’t face the practi-
cal difficulties of professional politicians. Some will remain with their party
and out of line with its new position for a lifetime. New voters will come
on the scene without previous loyalties and find it easier to align correctly.
They develop support for the party positions, both old and new, in the
process of cementing a bond with their party. So population replacement
eventually produces alignment.
Voters then begin to enforce issue discipline on politicians. The mech-
7
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