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Paper Autonomy, Private Ambition: Theory and Evidence Linking Central Bankers' Careers and the Economy

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Abstract:

Central bankers' careers are shown to influence inflation outcomes. I
present two theories in which careers explain central bank behavior,
develop them in a game theoretic model, and test them using a
comprehensive new data set of central bankers' career backgrounds
which spans twenty rich democracies and half a century. Career
experiences vary considerably over this sample, and not only mould
beliefs about appropriate policy (the socialization hypothesis), but
also shape career concerns for central bankers who seek career
advancement in either the financial sector or government (the career
incentives hypothesis). Accordingly, time series cross-section
analysis of inflation shows central bankers with financial sector
backgrounds preside over lower inflation, while central bankers with
bureaucratic experience produce higher inflation. The magnitude of
career effects on inflation is on par with standard measures of
central bank independence, and interactive models suggest both
socialization and incentives contribute to these career effects. The
study of central banks in particular and bureaucracy in general should
pay greater attention to individual preferences and their interaction
with organizations; institutions alone are not enough.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

central (255), career (216), banker (199), polici (179), bank (172), govern (111), monetari (108), prefer (98), ation (97), sector (85), nancial (78), o (77), experi (75), job (63), e (61), ect (60), may (56), agent (53), 2 (53), model (52), 1 (50),

Author's Keywords:

central banks, inflation, careers, principal-agent
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Adolph, Christopher. "Paper Autonomy, Private Ambition: Theory and Evidence Linking Central Bankers' Careers and the Economy" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 27, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63829_index.html>

APA Citation:

Adolph, C. , 2003-08-27 "Paper Autonomy, Private Ambition: Theory and Evidence Linking Central Bankers' Careers and the Economy" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p63829_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Central bankers' careers are shown to influence inflation outcomes. I
present two theories in which careers explain central bank behavior,
develop them in a game theoretic model, and test them using a
comprehensive new data set of central bankers' career backgrounds
which spans twenty rich democracies and half a century. Career
experiences vary considerably over this sample, and not only mould
beliefs about appropriate policy (the socialization hypothesis), but
also shape career concerns for central bankers who seek career
advancement in either the financial sector or government (the career
incentives hypothesis). Accordingly, time series cross-section
analysis of inflation shows central bankers with financial sector
backgrounds preside over lower inflation, while central bankers with
bureaucratic experience produce higher inflation. The magnitude of
career effects on inflation is on par with standard measures of
central bank independence, and interactive models suggest both
socialization and incentives contribute to these career effects. The
study of central banks in particular and bureaucracy in general should
pay greater attention to individual preferences and their interaction
with organizations; institutions alone are not enough.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 45
Word count: 21575
Text sample:
Paper Autonomy Private Ambition: Theory and Evidence Linking Central Bankers’ Careers and Economic Performance∗ Christopher Adolph† Harvard University August 6 2003 Abstract. Central bankers’ careers are shown to influence inflation outcomes. I present two theories in which careers explain central bank behavior develop them in a game theoretic model and test them using a comprehensive new data set of central bankers’ career backgrounds which spans twenty rich democ- racies and half a century. Career experiences vary considerably over this
and Policy. Cambridge M.A.: MIT Press. Walsh James P. 1988. ‘Selectivity and selective perception: An investigation of managers’ belief structures and information processing.’ The Academy of Management Journal 31.4 (Dec.) 873–896. Weingast Barry and Mark Moran. 1983. “Bureaucratic discretion or Congressional control? Regulatory policymaking by the Federal Trade Commission.” Journal of Political Economy 91.5: 765–800. Western Bruce. 1995. “Concepts and suggestions for robust regression analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 39.3: 786–817. Wooley John T. 1984. Monetary Politics: The


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