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Kramer Versus Kramer: The Impact of Aggregate Economic Conditions on Individual Votes
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| | Unformatted Document Text:
THE ELECTORAL IMPACT OF PARTISAN ECONOMIC POLICY:
AUDITING THE POCKETBOOKS OF SELF-INTERESTED VOTERS
Robert Grafstein
Department of Political Science
University of Georgia
Athens, GA 30602
## email not listed ##
This paper investigates pocketbook voting by explicitly modeling the impact of partisan
economic policy on the income of different kinds of individuals and, based on the PermanentIncome Hypothesis, the conversion of that income into consumption, the ultimate source ofutility. Using PSID data, empirical estimates of the partisan income effect are used to generatea measure of partisan utility differences that enters into a logistic regression using 1952-2000NES presidential election data. This pocketbook measure performs as predicted.
Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political ScienceAssociation, September 2-5, 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. I am grateful to Damon Cann, Brad Lockerbie, Shawn Treier, and Jeffrey Wenger for helpfuldiscussions concerning this paper. They are not responsible for any remaining errors.
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| | Authors: Grafstein, Robert. |
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THE ELECTORAL IMPACT OF PARTISAN ECONOMIC POLICY:
AUDITING THE POCKETBOOKS OF SELF-INTERESTED VOTERS
Robert Grafstein
Department of Political Science
University of Georgia
Athens, GA 30602
## email not listed ##
This paper investigates pocketbook voting by explicitly modeling the impact of partisan
economic policy on the income of different kinds of individuals and, based on the Permanent
Income Hypothesis, the conversion of that income into consumption, the ultimate source of
utility. Using PSID data, empirical estimates of the partisan income effect are used to generate
a measure of partisan utility differences that enters into a logistic regression using 1952-2000
NES presidential election data. This pocketbook measure performs as predicted.
Prepared for delivery at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science
Association, September 2-5, 2004. Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
I am grateful to Damon Cann, Brad Lockerbie, Shawn Treier, and Jeffrey Wenger for helpful
discussions concerning this paper. They are not responsible for any remaining errors.
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