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Early Warning System of Interethnic Conflict: Theoretical Grounds of Practice (Crimean Case Study)
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The past conflicts and group traumas.Behavior and views of ethnic group leaders. (Mobilization abilities of ethnic groups and their leaders (ratings in their own ethnic group and in other ones).Groups of the malcontent. Electoral behavior of ethnic groups.Changes in self-appraisal (ethnic and social correlation, new and old identities).Myths.Fears.The level of tolerance.The development of the third sector and its particularities.
The indicators of the fourth groupDemography and migrationPopulation (dynamics of the population size, ethnic composition, the level of urbanization, etc.).Interethnic marriages and divorces.Natality (birth-rate, death-rate, life expectancy).Migration (internal and external; refugees, repatriates, seasonal workers). Internal migration: ethnosocial particularities of urbanization, taking into account social composition of the deported citizens.The number of refugees from the regions of the “hot” interethnic conflicts.
The indicators of the fifth groupCulture, education, mass mediaCultural dominants (ethnic purposes, stereotypes, orientations, values and their interiorization in process of upbringing).Religion (confessional composition and dynamics of its modification, growth of religious communes and religious buildings, inter-confessional tolerance and interaction, the role of the State and its attitude towards different confessions, the place of the religion in public consciousness and activity of ethnic communes).Conditions of the languages functioning (legislation concerning languages, the official language, the language of business, education, mass media, interethnic communication).School education (the State support of the education in the native languages, availability ofhandbooks and methodical literature, staff, ethnic composition of the teachers).Higher education (ethnic composition of students, contents of courses, students’ life).Mass media (structure, education and ethnic composition of journalists, independence and control, contents of programs).Holidays and historic dates (conditions of carrying out, support by authorities, participation of policy-makers, participation of different ethnic groups).
The indicators of the sixth groupExternal (foreign) conditionsExistence and influence from the part of parent-states and neighboring countries with kindred culture and religion. External support of opposition groups. Regional stability.Fight for geopolitical influence.Transboundary cooperation.Modification of the image (of the country, region, ethnic group).
It would be great to follow all the six groups of the indicators in all the mentioned
parameters. However, it is not possible based on the available resources, and is superfluous for
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| | Authors: Gabriyelyan, Oleg. |
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9
The past conflicts and group traumas.
Behavior and views of ethnic group leaders. (Mobilization abilities of ethnic groups and their
leaders (ratings in their own ethnic group and in other ones).
Groups of the malcontent.
Electoral behavior of ethnic groups.
Changes in self-appraisal (ethnic and social correlation, new and old identities).
Myths.
Fears.
The level of tolerance.
The development of the third sector and its particularities.
The indicators of the fourth group
Demography and migration
Population (dynamics of the population size, ethnic composition, the level of urbanization, etc.).
Interethnic marriages and divorces.
Natality (birth-rate, death-rate, life expectancy).
Migration (internal and external; refugees, repatriates, seasonal workers). Internal migration:
ethnosocial particularities of urbanization, taking into account social composition of the deported
citizens.
The number of refugees from the regions of the “hot” interethnic conflicts.
The indicators of the fifth group
Culture, education, mass media
Cultural dominants (ethnic purposes, stereotypes, orientations, values and their interiorization in
process of upbringing).
Religion (confessional composition and dynamics of its modification, growth of religious
communes and religious buildings, inter-confessional tolerance and interaction, the role of the
State and its attitude towards different confessions, the place of the religion in public
consciousness and activity of ethnic communes).
Conditions of the languages functioning (legislation concerning languages, the official language,
the language of business, education, mass media, interethnic communication).
School education (the State support of the education in the native languages, availability of
handbooks and methodical literature, staff, ethnic composition of the teachers).
Higher education (ethnic composition of students, contents of courses, students’ life).
Mass media (structure, education and ethnic composition of journalists, independence and
control, contents of programs).
Holidays and historic dates (conditions of carrying out, support by authorities, participation of
policy-makers, participation of different ethnic groups).
The indicators of the sixth group
External (foreign) conditions
Existence and influence from the part of parent-states and neighboring countries with kindred
culture and religion. External support of opposition groups.
Regional stability.
Fight for geopolitical influence.
Transboundary cooperation.
Modification of the image (of the country, region, ethnic group).
It would be great to follow all the six groups of the indicators in all the mentioned
parameters. However, it is not possible based on the available resources, and is superfluous for
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