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Electoral Control in New Democracies: Fluid Party Systems as Perverse Incentives

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Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of fluid party systems on democratic accountability. To this end, we proceed in three steps. First,
we represent party systems as incentive structures that influence the motivation of individual legislators to act in the interest of the electorate. This allows us to investigate how the incentives generated by fluid party systems, i.e. by the prospect of switching political parties when economic outcomes are bad, interact with the incentives generated by the system of repeated elections, i.e. by the prospect of an electoral sanction when economic outcomes are bad. Second, we analyze a new database that contains information about all legislative incumbents and all competitive elections that took place in Poland after the country's transition to democracy. We establish the following: (a) the reelection probability of incumbents from governing parties is a decreasing function of economic performance, while the reelection probability of incumbents from governing parties is an increasing function of economic performance; (b) the probability that incumbents from a governing party switch to a non-governing party is a decreasing function of economic performance; (c) the reelection probability of incumbents who switch parties and contest elections as members of an opposition party is the same as the reelection probability of incumbents who were members of an opposition party from the beginning. In the third step, we use these results to construct a counterfactual comparison of electoral incentives that exist in Poland's fluid party systems to the electoral incentives that would have existed in Poland had its party system been stable. In particular we compare the expected value of an election when party switching is possible to the expected value of an election when party switching is not an option. We find that holding economic performance constant, the expected value of an election with switching is greater than the expected value of an election without switching. This implies that individual incentives generated by fluid party systems erode the incentives generated by the system of repeated elections and thus reduce the extent of democratic accountability.

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parti (255), switch (127), elector (112), incumb (99), govern (86), elect (81), legisl (80), system (69), 1 (63), polit (63), econom (61), account (58), member (52), reelect (52), probabl (50), control (45), valu (45), incent (44), opposit (41), individu (40), expect (40),

Author's Keywords:

democratic accountability, economic voting, Eastern Europe, Poland, political parties, party systems, elections
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Name: American Political Science Association
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Zielinski, Jakub. "Electoral Control in New Democracies: Fluid Party Systems as Perverse Incentives" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 27, 2003 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p64275_index.html>

APA Citation:

Zielinski, J. , 2003-08-27 "Electoral Control in New Democracies: Fluid Party Systems as Perverse Incentives" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p64275_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of fluid party systems on democratic accountability. To this end, we proceed in three steps. First,
we represent party systems as incentive structures that influence the motivation of individual legislators to act in the interest of the electorate. This allows us to investigate how the incentives generated by fluid party systems, i.e. by the prospect of switching political parties when economic outcomes are bad, interact with the incentives generated by the system of repeated elections, i.e. by the prospect of an electoral sanction when economic outcomes are bad. Second, we analyze a new database that contains information about all legislative incumbents and all competitive elections that took place in Poland after the country's transition to democracy. We establish the following: (a) the reelection probability of incumbents from governing parties is a decreasing function of economic performance, while the reelection probability of incumbents from governing parties is an increasing function of economic performance; (b) the probability that incumbents from a governing party switch to a non-governing party is a decreasing function of economic performance; (c) the reelection probability of incumbents who switch parties and contest elections as members of an opposition party is the same as the reelection probability of incumbents who were members of an opposition party from the beginning. In the third step, we use these results to construct a counterfactual comparison of electoral incentives that exist in Poland's fluid party systems to the electoral incentives that would have existed in Poland had its party system been stable. In particular we compare the expected value of an election when party switching is possible to the expected value of an election when party switching is not an option. We find that holding economic performance constant, the expected value of an election with switching is greater than the expected value of an election without switching. This implies that individual incentives generated by fluid party systems erode the incentives generated by the system of repeated elections and thus reduce the extent of democratic accountability.

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Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 29
Word count: 8859
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Electoral Control in New Democracies: Fluid Party Systems as Perverse Incentives* Jakub Zielinski zielinski.22@osu.edu Department of Political Science The Ohio State University Kazimierz M. Slomczynski slomczynski.1@osu.edu Department of Sociology The Ohio State University Goldie Shabad shabad.1@osu.edu Department of Political Science The Ohio State University *Prepared for a presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science As- sociation Philadelphia 2003. 1 Introduction The central proposition of modern democratic theory is that repeated elections function as a mechanism of
Taking account of institutional effects: How institutions mediate the effect of economic conditions on election results – evidence from Russia Hungary Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic 1990 – 1996. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington D.C. Tucker J. (2001). Sanctioning versus mandate voting: Evidence from Russia Hungary Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies Washington D.C.


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