38
be small at present, but use of the technology has an unambiguously positive effect for
bureaucratization. As China’s e-government programs develop further in the future, this impact
is likely to increase in magnitude. With respect to procedures governing the access to power, the
effect of Internet use in authoritarian regimes is neither unambiguous, nor does it necessarily
favor democracy. In the short term this situation seems unlikely to change.
In speculating about the more long-term prospects for the Internet in authoritarian
regimes, however, it is important to recall that accurately predicting the impact of a flexible
technology is an inherently difficult enterprise. Given its flexibility, the specific technological
characteristics of the Internet in any given environment will be largely contingent upon the
political, economic, and social conditions that prevail. Moreover, the non-technological
constraints that influence Internet use—law, the market, and social norms—are similarly capable
of change over time even when they exhibit a certain degree of stickiness. To say that China’s
laws and market environment or the social norms prevailing in Saudi Arabia currently support
government control of Internet use does not mean that they will continue to do so fifty years
hence. While not an automatically liberal sphere of communication, a more liberal future for the
Internet is certainly possible. Such an outcome, however, will depend largely on the non-
technological variables shaping the evolution of Internet technology and the manner in which it
is used—not on any inherent characteristic of the Internet itself.
Convention