Burbach, “Rally ‘Round the Flag, or Run Away!”
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“Rally ‘Round the Flag”, or “Run Away, Run Away!”
Public Responses to U.S. Military Intervention, 1953-2000
David T Burbach
MIT Security Studies Program
*
Prepared for the Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association
August 28, 2003
Philadelphia, PA
ABSTRACT
It is claimed that the U.S. public has become unwilling to support costly interventions.
Leaders of potential opponents discount U.S. credibility due to that belief, with the
potential result of deterrence failures and inadvertent wars. This study tests the “public
outrage” hypothesis by examining the impact on Presidential support of interventions
from 1953 to 2000. Few examples are found of Presidents suffering as a result of
intervention. Instead, strong support is found for the “rational public” theory: the public
differentiates between foreign policy goals, disliking humanitarian intervention,
supporting defense of allies, and very strongly supporting direct protection of American
lives. The U.S. public has not become averse to conflict in general, and leaders of states
that threaten American allies or interests should not expect American public opinion to
block American military commitments against them.
*
The author is a post-doctoral affiliate of the MIT Security Studies Program; Room E38-600, 77
Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139. Email address:
## email not listed ##
Helpful comments on
this work were provided by Harvey Sapolsky, Steve Van Evera, Charles Stewart, Daryl Press, John
Mueller, and Christopher Twomey. Travel grants for the presentation of the work were received from the
MIT Department of Political Science and the Security Studies Program.
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