Burbach, “Rally ‘Round the Flag, or Run Away!”
Page 19
More recently, the saga of downed and rescued U.S. pilot Scott O’Grady in Bosnia
received far more attention from the U.S. public than most other aspects of the war.
41
If the casualty-phobic model is correct, none of these distinctions should matter
very much, though the “protecting Americans” mission might be an exception – if the
goal is to save American lives directly, then perhaps risking American lives would be a
fair trade. This leads to hypotheses 4A and 4B
4A: Support for intervention should not vary systematically by type of conflict
4B: As a weaker version of 4A, support will be stronger for “protecting
Americans” missions, but presidential support will suffer from either
interventions for humanitarian purposes or defend allies.
Testing the Public Reaction to Military Intervention
The question of public support for uses of force has already received significant
attention. One line of study has been prospective, conducting surveys and asking
respondents under what conditions they would support the use of force – for what
purposes, in what regions or countries, facing how many casualties, etc.
42
Others have
been retrospective, analyzing the existing polling data from previous conflicts.
43
Most of
these studies have cast doubt on the irresolute public hypothesis, but have found strong
support for the hypothesis that support varies by the interests at stake in a given fight.
This study uses an alternative approach: measuring changes in Presidential
approval ratings following uses of force. While not as direct a measure of support as
41
Consider also the focus on the U.S. embassy hostages in Iran, the degree to which a dozen or so hostages
in Lebanon drove Reagan Administration policy, and the current attention the Pentagon gives to the case of
pilot Michael Speicher, possibly held in Iraq since 1991.
42
Reilly, CCFR survey 1999; Kohut et. al., "Arms and the People"; Steven Kull and I. M. Destler,
Misreading The Public: The Myth of a New Isolationism (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1999);
Feaver and Kohn, TISS studies (published yet?); Holsti, Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy.
43
Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion; Jenttleson; Larson, Casualties and Consensus: The
Historical Role of Casualties in Support For U.S. Military Operations; Burk, "Public Support for
Peacekeeping in Lebanon and Somalia: Assessing the Causalities Hypothesis"; Mueller, "Public Support
for Military Ventures Abroad: Evidence from the Polls"
Convention