Burbach, “Rally ‘Round the Flag, or Run Away!”
Page 2
“My President believes that when CNN shows the first dead American
soldier in Bitanga, you lose”.
“Please tell your President that in 23 hours, he’s going to lose that bet.”
Fictional exchange on the The West Wing television program between the
Khundese ambassador and the White House Chief of Staff.
1
It became common in the 1990s to claim that the American public had become
unwilling to see any American casualties taken in military interventions. There is
evidence that decision makers in states that could become U.S. opponents have accepted
that view, and now doubt American credibility due to the lessons of Somalia, Vietnam,
Beirut, and other purported examples of public outcry forcing the U.S. to withdraw from
conflicts. Many observers disagree that the public is so irresolute, however.
Understanding which view is correct is important, since it affects America’s ability to
successfully deter challengers, and misperceptions of public resolve may lead to
inadvertent wars.
This study tests hypotheses that stem from this “public veto” theory of public
opinion forcing U.S. withdrawals by examining changes in Presidential support following
uses of force from 1953 to 2000. Little support is found for the pure version of the
theory; Presidents rarely pay political costs for using force. On the other hand, strong
support is found for the “rational public” thesis that the public is able to distinguish
between interventions involving high or low levels of American interest – using force to
protect Americans is strongly supported, humanitarian intervention is not. Critics may be
1
The West Wing,”California 47
th
” (episode #416), written and produced by Aaron Sorkin, broadcast on
NBC network, February 19
,
2003.
Convention