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UN Peacekeeping: Treaties, Signaling, and Peace
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UN Peacekeeping:
Treaties, Signaling, and Peace
Timothy A. Carter
∗
August 28, 2003
Prepared for Delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association, August 28-31, 2003.
Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
Abstract
Civil wars, when they end, seldom end well. Complete victory, one side’s de-struction or capitulation, is common. Negotiated settlements, although possi-ble, are less common, and absent outside intervention, these settlements usuallyfail. Moreover, outside intervention only arrives when peace is likely, becausethe United Nations, today’s primary intervener, is (largely) incapable of forcingpeaceful outcomes. Treaties, as the conventional wisdom goes, are importantsignals for peace, but that wisdom comes from the study of interstate warswhere the costs and risks of implementing peace settlements are fewer. In civilwars treaties are relatively costly to negotiate and their implementation morerisky—at least for Dovish locals. Hawkish locals, alternatively, can and do usetreaties, just as they use cease-fires, as tactical ploys. Given that, how can theUN use treaties as peace signals? A possible answer, which I illustrate with asimple intervention model, is that the UN is able to use treaties as peace signalsbecause it likes treaties.
∗
Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627. I would like to
thank Cristina Bodea, Songying Fang, Justin Fox, Kristopher Ramsay, and Randall Stone for theirhelpful comments. Comments and criticisms are appreciated. Please do not cite or quote withoutthe author’s permission. E-mail: ## email not listed ##
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| | Authors: Carter, Timothy. |
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UN Peacekeeping:
Treaties, Signaling, and Peace
Timothy A. Carter
∗
August 28, 2003
Prepared for Delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association, August 28-31, 2003.
Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
Abstract
Civil wars, when they end, seldom end well. Complete victory, one side’s de-
struction or capitulation, is common. Negotiated settlements, although possi-
ble, are less common, and absent outside intervention, these settlements usually
fail. Moreover, outside intervention only arrives when peace is likely, because
the United Nations, today’s primary intervener, is (largely) incapable of forcing
peaceful outcomes. Treaties, as the conventional wisdom goes, are important
signals for peace, but that wisdom comes from the study of interstate wars
where the costs and risks of implementing peace settlements are fewer. In civil
wars treaties are relatively costly to negotiate and their implementation more
risky—at least for Dovish locals. Hawkish locals, alternatively, can and do use
treaties, just as they use cease-fires, as tactical ploys. Given that, how can the
UN use treaties as peace signals? A possible answer, which I illustrate with a
simple intervention model, is that the UN is able to use treaties as peace signals
because it likes treaties.
∗
Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627. I would like to
thank Cristina Bodea, Songying Fang, Justin Fox, Kristopher Ramsay, and Randall Stone for their
helpful comments. Comments and criticisms are appreciated. Please do not cite or quote without
the author’s permission. E-mail: ## email not listed ##
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