Wagging the Doves?
Peace-Promoting Actions as a Source of Presidential Support
David T Burbach
MIT Security Studies Program
*
Prepared for the Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association
August 28, 2003
Philadelphia, PA
ABSTRACT
Dramatic uses of force are widely thought to increase public support for national leaders, but less
attention has been given to the possibility of “uses of peace” as sources of rallies. Media and
public opinion theories suggest that, as visible and popular events, diplomatic activities should
also be status-enhancing. This study tests that proposition by measuring the impact of “peace-
promoting actions” on the approval ratings of U.S. Presidents from 1953-2000. A dataset of 85
dramatic peace events is constructed, and statistical tests used to measure the magnitude and
duration of approval changes following them. Peace events cause an average 2% increase, and
just over 5% for the 25 largest events, decaying with a half life of 3 months. Media quantity and
elite opinion strongly influence the response, with gains >10% or losses of nearly 5% being
possible. Despite these political gains, there is no evidence of “diversionary peace”: peace
events are not more frequent in response to low approval ratings, recessions, scandals, or
impending elections.
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