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Wagging the Doves? Peace-Promoting Activities as a Source of Presidential Support
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Table 4: Event Effects by Media/Opinion, Event Type
Opinion Variables
(eq 7b)
Event Type
Event Type –
MAJOR ONLY
Variable
Estimate(ββββ) Std. Err
Estimate(ββββ) Std. Err
Estimate(ββββ)
Std. Err
Constant
2.120
0.3739
2.1088
0.4126
2.2391
0.3441
Unemployment
-2.2267
2.2363
-1.972
2.456
-4.0442
1.9828
QuarterlyInflation
-1.1379
1.1202
-1.1499
1.1958
-1.2943
1.0369
ConsumerExpect
0.0195
0.0017
0.0197
0.0018
0.0177
0.0015
VietnamSqrt
-0.4778
0.0407
-0.4717
0.0408
-0.4701
0.0379
Watergate
-1.0162
0.1194
-0.9608
0.1174
-1.014
0.1208
IranContra
-1.3693
0.3948
-1.2062
0.3872
-1.1245
0.3744
Inauguration
23.5561
1.1517
23.0409
1.1328
22.5353
1.0982
Time constant
φ
1
.9193
0.9188
0.9248
Event Variables
PeaceEvent
-1.9398
1.1011
CoveragePE
2.6199
0.8349
SuccessPE
0.4861
1.1359
OpinonIndexPE
1.7388
0.5085
1.1102
0.4385
1.8041
1.2362
Deescalation
0.2924
0.7768
8.9544
4.3456
ArmsControl
2.0308
1.4119
2.9783
6.9229
Relations
1.2334
1.0014
5.5444
2.4015
Mediation
-4.6462
2.513
-8.072
8.4339
WarTermination
23.2568
4.3921
33.1624
6.2376
ForceMajor
6.5019
0.9617
5.5664
0.9239
Time Constant
φ
2
.6489
0.6564
.5066
(half life) 47 days
49 days
31 days
Std. Error
6.743
6.597
6.717
N
838
838
838
Log-likelihood
-2018.37
-1999.1
-2015.1
95% confidence intervals for effect predictions. Variables in
bold significant at a .05 level or above.
As predicted, the peace activity produces larger approval gains for presidents when
coverage is more intensive, and when supported by opinion leaders. Success, on the other hand,
did not matter much, though studies of the use of force have also found that.
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Table 4: Event Effects by Media/Opinion, Event Type
Opinion Variables
(eq 7b)
Event Type
Event Type –
MAJOR ONLY
Variable
Estimate(ββββ) Std. Err
Estimate(ββββ) Std. Err
Estimate(ββββ)
Std. Err
Constant
2.120
0.3739
2.1088
0.4126
2.2391
0.3441
Unemployment
-2.2267
2.2363
-1.972
2.456
-4.0442
1.9828
QuarterlyInflation
-1.1379
1.1202
-1.1499
1.1958
-1.2943
1.0369
ConsumerExpect
0.0195
0.0017
0.0197
0.0018
0.0177
0.0015
VietnamSqrt
-0.4778
0.0407
-0.4717
0.0408
-0.4701
0.0379
Watergate
-1.0162
0.1194
-0.9608
0.1174
-1.014
0.1208
IranContra
-1.3693
0.3948
-1.2062
0.3872
-1.1245
0.3744
Inauguration
23.5561
1.1517
23.0409
1.1328
22.5353
1.0982
Time constant
φ
1
.9193
0.9188
0.9248
Event Variables
PeaceEvent
-1.9398
1.1011
CoveragePE
2.6199
0.8349
SuccessPE
0.4861
1.1359
OpinonIndexPE
1.7388
0.5085
1.1102
0.4385
1.8041
1.2362
Deescalation
0.2924
0.7768
8.9544
4.3456
ArmsControl
2.0308
1.4119
2.9783
6.9229
Relations
1.2334
1.0014
5.5444
2.4015
Mediation
-4.6462
2.513
-8.072
8.4339
WarTermination
23.2568
4.3921
33.1624
6.2376
ForceMajor
6.5019
0.9617
5.5664
0.9239
Time Constant
φ
2
.6489
0.6564
.5066
(half life) 47 days
49 days
31 days
Std. Error
6.743
6.597
6.717
N
838
838
838
Log-likelihood
-2018.37
-1999.1
-2015.1
95% confidence intervals for effect predictions. Variables in
bold significant at a .05 level or above.
As predicted, the peace activity produces larger approval gains for presidents when
coverage is more intensive, and when supported by opinion leaders. Success, on the other hand,
did not matter much, though studies of the use of force have also found that.
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