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Non-Territorial Gains – Mobilized Domestic Support
Whether decision makers engage in a territorial dispute as a diversion or they inherit a
territorial dispute destined to occur due to exogenous factors, mobilized domestic support for the
decision makers is a likely benefit, particularly when they are vulnerable. Decision makers are
deemed as vulnerable when their hold on power and ability to influence are weak and insecure,
they are strongly threatened by the opposition, or their public opinion is fairly low. Such
vulnerable decision makers have incentives to strengthen their power base by mobilizing against
any threatening political opposition. This is based on the assumption that decision makers seek to
remain in power (Fearon 1994, Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson 1995, Bueno de Mesquita,
Morrow, Siverson, Smith 1999a, Schultz 1999, 2001). Reasons for remaining in power can
include personal motivation to hold a leadership position that provides power, attempts to
achieve financial gains, and the aspiration of the decision maker to influence policy goals (Huth
and Allee 2002, 70).
If decision makers
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wish to retain
political power, they will need to seek policies t hat
provide them with the most stability and security rather than making them more vulnerable to
removal from power by the opposition. In order to retain political power, decision makers must
be able to provide more benefits to the winning coalition, the group that is able to keep decision
makers in power, than the opposition can (Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, Siverson, Smith 1999a,
150, Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, Siverson, Smith 1999b, 796). Hence, decision makers will be
sensitive to strategic foreign policy choices that could damage their political popularity and
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I use the term decision maker rather than leader because there are often several top decision makers involved in
selecting strategies in territorial disputes, particularly foreign ministers, prime ministers in monarchial systems in
which the monarch still reigns, information or propaganda ministers, cabinet members, and military commanders.
These decision makers are viewed as vulnerable because they are all part of the top echelon of the same political
administration and will be subsequently punished if the top leader himself is punished due to dissatisfactory dispute
outcomes.
Convention