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Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The Politics of Compliance with Foreign Coercive Pressure
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Abstract
States faced with coercive pressure face a difficult choice. Compliance with the desires of the coercing state entails acceptance of a policy that is most likely less attractive than the status quo. Resistance to the pressure entails accepting the possible costs the coercing state will impose in its effort to get its way. Frequently, the response of governments faced with foreign coercive pressure is explained as a function of total actual or potential costs imposed by the coercer. These explanations are curiously apolitical, since both the change in state policy and any costs imposed have distributional implications for interests within the target state. In those analyses where political interests within the target state are taken into account, the outcome is explained as a function of the relative importance of the interests affected. This reduces national leaders to puppets operating in an environment of perfect accountability to society, and misses the impact political institutions have upon the ability of societal actors to express their preferences and obtain desired policies. I argue that we can better understand the decision national governments make when faced with coercion as a function of the domestic interests affected and the political institutions of the target that govern the extent to which these interests can hold the national leadership accountable. I support this argument with two large-N analysis of coercion cases, one involving economic coercion cases from 1917 through 1990, the other involving military coercion cases from 1961 through 1999.
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2
Abstract
States faced with coercive pressure face a difficult choice. Compliance with the desires of the
coercing state entails acceptance of a policy that is most likely less attractive than the status quo.
Resistance to the pressure entails accepting the possible costs the coercing state will impose in its
effort to get its way. Frequently, the response of governments faced with foreign coercive
pressure is explained as a function of total actual or potential costs imposed by the coercer.
These explanations are curiously apolitical, since both the change in state policy and any costs
imposed have distributional implications for interests within the target state. In those analyses
where political interests within the target state are taken into account, the outcome is explained
as a function of the relative importance of the interests affected. This reduces national leaders to
puppets operating in an environment of perfect accountability to society, and misses the impact
political institutions have upon the ability of societal actors to express their preferences and
obtain desired policies. I argue that we can better understand the decision national governments
make when faced with coercion as a function of the domestic interests affected and the political
institutions of the target that govern the extent to which these interests can hold the national
leadership accountable. I support this argument with two large-N analysis of coercion cases, one
involving economic coercion cases from 1917 through 1990, the other involving military
coercion cases from 1961 through 1999.
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