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Fighting to Win: Translating Military Gains into Political Victories
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The Dynamics of Bargaining and War
In Filson and Werner (2002), we introduced a formal model of bargaining and war to
explore conditions under which states that can negotiate settlements choose to initiate and
terminate violence. In Filson and Werner (2003a, 2003b), we apply the model to obtain testable
hypotheses about the impact of regime type on war onset, duration, and outcomes. However,
analysis to date has focused on short wars that last at most one period. In this paper, we consider
more complex environments using computational techniques. In doing so, we explore the
conditions under which wars endure. The results clarify how the initial distributions of power
and benefits, beliefs, and regime type affect when wars begin, how quickly they end, and what
deals are made.
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| | Authors: Werner, Suzanne. |
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2
The Dynamics of Bargaining and War
In Filson and Werner (2002), we introduced a formal model of bargaining and war to
explore conditions under which states that can negotiate settlements choose to initiate and
terminate violence. In Filson and Werner (2003a, 2003b), we apply the model to obtain testable
hypotheses about the impact of regime type on war onset, duration, and outcomes. However,
analysis to date has focused on short wars that last at most one period. In this paper, we consider
more complex environments using computational techniques. In doing so, we explore the
conditions under which wars endure. The results clarify how the initial distributions of power
and benefits, beliefs, and regime type affect when wars begin, how quickly they end, and what
deals are made.
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