8
these variables were different (a more or less competitive election year and an election where an
incumbent was not running) (Foyle 2002).
The third independent variable is perceived public preferences. Some theories suggest that policy
makers are highly responsive to public demands in an election year which implies that they will pursue
aggressive or conciliatory policies depending upon public preferences. Others suggest that because the
use of force increases public approval, the potential for aggressive action exists regardless of perceived
public preferences.
The fourth independent variable is the perceived stakes and pressures within the international
environment. Some views suggest that policy makers will respond exclusively to the international
situation and that any domestic influence will only be apparent rather than substantive. Alternatively,
domestic politics might push the leader to pursue “unwise” policies in relation to the international stakes.
The fifth and final independent variable encompasses domestic policy. This variable relates to the
economic situation as well as the influence that a policy’s resolution might have on other important issues
on the president’s domestic agenda.
Case Selection: This case arises out of a larger project examining a range of cases across elections
and presidents. Selection of the United States for this project makes empirical sense for several reasons:
most of the previous literature also focuses on the United States; it has regularized elections outside the
control of the leader; and the high data availability on the decision making process. For this paper, a
single president was chosen in order to focus on the main variable of interest which is presidential
decision making in neutral electoral contexts where an incumbent is running. Of the presidential elections
between 1948 and 2000, 1972 provides the oldest example of an incumbent running in neutral conditions
(In this year, Nixon’s approval rating averaged 55 percent).
4
In terms of data access, the recent release of
Nixon White House tape recording through June 1972 provides new access to the internal deliberations of
4
Other incumbent presidents who faced neutral electoral conditions occurred after 1972: 1976 Ford (47 percent
approval); 1984 Reagan (54 percent approval); 1996 Clinton (54 percent). Coding the electoral context as the
average approval rating from January until the decision (rather than from January to the election) does not change
the coding of electoral context.
Convention