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Identities Unbound: Escalating Ethnic Conflict in the Post-Communist World
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Table 1: Diffusion and Escalation among the Soviet Republics and Successor States
First Phase (1987-1991): Late Soviet (Glasnost) Period
Strong nationalist mobilization, accommodated by Republic Communist Party: Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), to some extent Russia.
Weak nationalist mobilization, blocked by Republic Communist Party: other Soviet Republics.
Strong minority (or, in Azerbaijan, majority) counter-mobilization: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova.
Weak minority counter-mobilization: Baltic States.
Second Phase (1991-1994): Soviet Collapse and Immediate Aftermath
Democratic regime, with more nationalist government; ethnic conflict occurs: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova.
Democratic regime, with more nationalist government; ethnic conflict doesn’t occur: Baltic States.
Authoritarian regime, without strong nationalist preferences; ethnic conflict occurs: Tajikistan.
Immediate escalation: Armenia in Azerbaijan; Russia in Georgia and Moldova; Uzbekistan, Russia and Afghan factions in Tajikistan.
Third Phase (1994-1997): Post-Soviet Changes
Shifting escalation: Uzbekistan in Tajikistan.
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| | Authors: Horowitz, Shale. |
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45
Table 1: Diffusion and Escalation among the Soviet Republics and Successor States
First Phase (1987-1991): Late Soviet (Glasnost) Period
Strong nationalist mobilization, accommodated by Republic Communist Party: Armenia,
Georgia, Moldova, Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), to some extent Russia.
Weak nationalist mobilization, blocked by Republic Communist Party: other Soviet Republics.
Strong minority (or, in Azerbaijan, majority) counter-mobilization: Azerbaijan, Georgia,
Moldova.
Weak minority counter-mobilization: Baltic States.
Second Phase (1991-1994): Soviet Collapse and Immediate Aftermath
Democratic regime, with more nationalist government; ethnic conflict occurs: Azerbaijan,
Georgia, Moldova.
Democratic regime, with more nationalist government; ethnic conflict doesn’t occur: Baltic
States.
Authoritarian regime, without strong nationalist preferences; ethnic conflict occurs: Tajikistan.
Immediate escalation: Armenia in Azerbaijan; Russia in Georgia and Moldova; Uzbekistan,
Russia and Afghan factions in Tajikistan.
Third Phase (1994-1997): Post-Soviet Changes
Shifting escalation: Uzbekistan in Tajikistan.
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