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Prepared for delivery at the 2003 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
August 28 - August 31, 2003.
Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
In the decades since the adoption of the McGovern-Fraser reforms that transformed the
presidential nomination process, political scientists have debated the extent to which party
insiders and outsiders dominate candidate selection. In the current nomination race, Vermont
Governor Howard Dean appears to be the quintessential “outside” candidate, while Senator John
Kerry of Massachusetts seems to have the support of much of the party “establishment.” Based
on the first nomination battles after the McGovern-Fraser reforms, one might expect the
insurgent Dean to have a strong chance of victory. Indeed, Nelson Polsby and Aaron Wildavsky
(2000, 267-269) conclude that the reforms had made it possible for candidate activists
representing a minority of the party to highjack the nomination process. But since 1984, the
success of such party insiders as Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, Al Gore, and
George W. Bush, gives reason for optimism to Kerry and the handful of other candidates with a
claim to the party establishment’s mantle.
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Recent research by Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller (2001)
bolsters the case that after a few initial missteps in the immediate aftermath of McGovern-Fraser,
party insiders have recaptured the nomination process. Cohen et al suggest that candidates must
actively solicit the support of members of the party network in the form of endorsements if they
harbor hopes of winning the nomination. Endorsements are critical in Cohen et al’s analysis.
Through endorsements, party leaders signal their choice of candidates to other elites and direct
the flow of such key campaign resources as money, expertise, and personnel, to their chosen
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These would likely include longtime House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri, who has considerable
support among members of Congress and organized labor. We provide some evidence below concerning the level
of party backing for the various candidates.
Convention