1
SEARCHING FOR DETERMINISM:
A COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF FIRST TERM APPROVAL
VOLATILITY, BUOYANCY, AND POLARIZATION
The search for a recurring trend in presidents’ approvals has received much attention by
presidency scholars -- and for good reason. The identification of a deterministic seasonal pattern
in approval has implications for the debate between the presidency- and president-centered
approaches. Evidence of an approval trend would appear to lend support to the idea of a
president constrained by the institution, while an absence of pattern may suggest that approval is
purely an ad-hoc reflection of the predilections of the individual.
There are two theory-driven expectations for approval trends that plot either an increase
or decrease in presidential approval relative to an earlier time in an administration. The first, the
cumulative decision explanation, argues that a president’s broad coalition of support, built while
campaigning, will steadily erode in response to the accumulation of decisions that must
necessarily follow an election. Many of these decisions may not fully resonate with coalition
members’ preferences, the consequence being a predictable, steady decline in approval. The
second, the psychological response explanation, argues that presidents come to office with
inflated approval due to unrealistic expectations. These expectations, when not met, lead to
disillusionment and subsequent approval decay. Trend lines are often looked to for confirmation
of these approaches. However, when conceptualized in this fashion, evidence of a pattern has
been fleeting. This paper argues that there is sound theory to suggest recurring patterns in
approval, but to illustrate these patterns we must broaden our attention beyond the confining
focus of trend lines.
Through a comparative assessment of first term approval, this paper examines evidence
of deterministic patterns in approval when approval is evaluated along the dimensions of
Page 1 of 22 
Convention