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Large Costs, Small Benefits: Explaining Trade Dispute Outcomes

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Abstract:

Why do states often expend considerable cost, time and effort trying to resolve disputes with only limited potential benefits? The United States frequently engages in negotiations with its trading partners over expanded market access for American firms. Many of these negotiations involve markets worth millions or even billions of dollars. But occasionally, government officials bargain long and hard over issues that were never predicted to result in substantial benefits. For example, the United States held negotiations with Japan for more than 30 years over increased market access for American apples. These negotiations were ultimately carried to the highest levels of government, discussed at international conferences, and even ruled on by World Trade Organization (WTO), yet the potential market for foreign apples was never estimated at greater than $15 million. Such protracted negotiations in this sector do not make sense from the perspective of expected utility theory. This outcome is understandable, however, with a focus on the role of losses drawn from prospect theory. Apple negotiations came to represent a spiral model for both the United States and Japan. As both sides of the dispute viewed their own losses as deepening over the course of negotiations, the actors became increasingly willing to take risky actions in an attempt to recoup losses.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

appl (255), u.s (210), japan (203), market (152), japanes (137), negoti (109), benefit (96), disput (96), american (90), cost (90), grower (87), trade (86), import (85), offici (81), state (76), larg (67), wto (66), case (63), export (63), servic (62), increas (54),

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Keywords: trade, dispute, market, access, WTO, World Trade Organization, expected utility theory, prospect theory
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Elms, Deborah. "Large Costs, Small Benefits: Explaining Trade Dispute Outcomes" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2009-05-27 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65142_index.html>

APA Citation:

Elms, D. K. , 2002-08-28 "Large Costs, Small Benefits: Explaining Trade Dispute Outcomes" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-27 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65142_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Why do states often expend considerable cost, time and effort trying to resolve disputes with only limited potential benefits? The United States frequently engages in negotiations with its trading partners over expanded market access for American firms. Many of these negotiations involve markets worth millions or even billions of dollars. But occasionally, government officials bargain long and hard over issues that were never predicted to result in substantial benefits. For example, the United States held negotiations with Japan for more than 30 years over increased market access for American apples. These negotiations were ultimately carried to the highest levels of government, discussed at international conferences, and even ruled on by World Trade Organization (WTO), yet the potential market for foreign apples was never estimated at greater than $15 million. Such protracted negotiations in this sector do not make sense from the perspective of expected utility theory. This outcome is understandable, however, with a focus on the role of losses drawn from prospect theory. Apple negotiations came to represent a spiral model for both the United States and Japan. As both sides of the dispute viewed their own losses as deepening over the course of negotiations, the actors became increasingly willing to take risky actions in an attempt to recoup losses.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 45
Word count: 15188
Text sample:
LARGE COSTS SMALL BENEFITS: EXPLAINING TRADE DISPUTE OUTCOMES Deborah Kay Elms University of Washington Department of Political Science Box 353530 Seattle WA 98103 delms@u.washington.edu Paper prepared for: APSA Annual Meeting Boston MA August 2002 Large Costs Small Benefits Deborah Kay Elms ­ 2 ­ Large Costs Small Benefits Deborah Kay Elms ­ 3 ­ THE PUZZLE A review of recent U.S. market access disputes with Japan South Korea and Thailand reveals an interesting empirical puzzle. Why does the United
would come to an end. U.S. officials argued that the approval process should be expedited since the U.S. submitted requested data to Japan 14 months earlier. ``Japan to Approve Additional Apple Cherry Imports '' Kyodo News Service March 10 1999. 142 ``Ban to be Lifted on Some Apples Cherries '' The Nikkei Weekly March 15 1999. 143 ``Japan Accepts WTO Ruling on Fruit Quarantine '' Jiji Press Ticker Service April 15 1999. 144 ``Ministry Agrees to Simplify Plant­Quarantine System


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