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"Vybrasyvaia Podletsov": Incumbent Electoral Fortunes and Regional Economic Performance during Russia's 2000-2001 Regional Executive Election Cycle

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Abstract:

Russian regional executive elections have long been characterized by scandals, corruption and incumbents' apparent ability to control election outcomes. Of late, economists working within the "market preserving federalism" theoretical framework have gone so far as to suggest that the elimination of democratic elections might spark economic growth and reform at the regional level. This study questions this assertion by presenting a systematic examination of the two post-Soviet regional election cycles with an emphasis on the role of economic performance in determining incumbent success. The results indicate that the 2000-2001 election cycle exhibited marked changes over the 1996-1997 round. With the elimination of the presidential referendum effect initially wrought by the predominance of presidential appointees in the first election cycle, the latter round witnessed the emergence of regional standard of living measures as important determinants of incumbent success. These findings question the extent to which regional executives have successfully shielded themselves from popular discontent over regional economic conditions.

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elect (233), region (212), incumb (167), econom (157), vote (134), 1 (91), measur (78), level (75), 2000 (66), 2 (65), indic (65), result (65), candid (60), one (56), 2001 (55), 1996 (54), polit (52), feder (52), wage (51), support (51), model (51),

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Keywords: Regional elections, Russian Politics, Economic Voting, Federalism, Regional Politics
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Konitzer-Smirnov, Andrew. ""Vybrasyvaia Podletsov": Incumbent Electoral Fortunes and Regional Economic Performance during Russia's 2000-2001 Regional Executive Election Cycle" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65388_index.html>

APA Citation:

Konitzer-Smirnov, A. , 2002-08-28 ""Vybrasyvaia Podletsov": Incumbent Electoral Fortunes and Regional Economic Performance during Russia's 2000-2001 Regional Executive Election Cycle" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65388_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Russian regional executive elections have long been characterized by scandals, corruption and incumbents' apparent ability to control election outcomes. Of late, economists working within the "market preserving federalism" theoretical framework have gone so far as to suggest that the elimination of democratic elections might spark economic growth and reform at the regional level. This study questions this assertion by presenting a systematic examination of the two post-Soviet regional election cycles with an emphasis on the role of economic performance in determining incumbent success. The results indicate that the 2000-2001 election cycle exhibited marked changes over the 1996-1997 round. With the elimination of the presidential referendum effect initially wrought by the predominance of presidential appointees in the first election cycle, the latter round witnessed the emergence of regional standard of living measures as important determinants of incumbent success. These findings question the extent to which regional executives have successfully shielded themselves from popular discontent over regional economic conditions.

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Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 45
Word count: 14726
Text sample:
``Vybrasyvaia Podletsov'': Incumbent Electoral Fortunes and Regional Economic Performance during Russia's 2000­2001 Regional Executive Election Cycle 1 Andrew Konitzer­Smirnov Research Fellow Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies The Woodrow Wilson Center One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW Washington D.C. 20004­3027 ackst8@yahoo.com ______________________________________________________________________________ Paper prepared for presentation at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Boston MA. August 28 -- September 1 2002. Materials for this analysis were collected over the course of a year
surrounding regional level voting behavior see Andrew Konitzer­Smirnov ``Jurisdictional Voting in Russia's Regions: Initial Results from Individual­level Analyses'' Europe­Asia Studies (forthcoming) 50 Official registered unemployment figures in Russia are generally considered to be poor indicators of actual unemployment. However this variable uses results of regional level survey analyses conducted from 1992­1999 to better estimate actual employment levels. As just one indication of the variation between the two different measures the 1999 all­Federation unemployment level as portrayed by the survey


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