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HOW CONCERNED ARE DECISION MAKERS WITH THE QUALITY OF INFORMATION USED FOR FOREIGN POLICY CHOICES? AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS.

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Abstract:

Foreign policy decision-makers operate in a complex environment often characterized by an overload of information that is riddled with inconsistency and ambiguity. The complexity of the decision-making information environment is evident in many policy-making situations, such as the transformation of information related to a rival?s belligerent intentions or an enemy?s military capabilities. But this complexity is particularly crucial when the outcome of the decision-making process carries great costs, as in the case of whether or not to use force.
When incorporating new information into the cognitive calculus of policy choices, decision-makers are often faced with a quantity versus quality dilemma, i.e. a tradeoff between testing the reliability of particular items of information (checking their credibility or ?truth? value) versus collecting more information pertaining to the conflict.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

inform (180), decis (161), item (114), relev (99), reliabl (95), maker (61), process (61), choic (58), make (56), use (52), 1 (43), model (38), polici (37), forc (36), geva (34), polit (34), foreign (32), effect (30), option (27), experiment (27), cognit (27),

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Keywords: Decision-Making, Information Reliability, Information Processing
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Geva, Nehemia. and Clare, Joe. "HOW CONCERNED ARE DECISION MAKERS WITH THE QUALITY OF INFORMATION USED FOR FOREIGN POLICY CHOICES? AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65654_index.html>

APA Citation:

Geva, N. and Clare, J. , 2002-08-28 "HOW CONCERNED ARE DECISION MAKERS WITH THE QUALITY OF INFORMATION USED FOR FOREIGN POLICY CHOICES? AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65654_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Foreign policy decision-makers operate in a complex environment often characterized by an overload of information that is riddled with inconsistency and ambiguity. The complexity of the decision-making information environment is evident in many policy-making situations, such as the transformation of information related to a rival?s belligerent intentions or an enemy?s military capabilities. But this complexity is particularly crucial when the outcome of the decision-making process carries great costs, as in the case of whether or not to use force.
When incorporating new information into the cognitive calculus of policy choices, decision-makers are often faced with a quantity versus quality dilemma, i.e. a tradeoff between testing the reliability of particular items of information (checking their credibility or ?truth? value) versus collecting more information pertaining to the conflict.

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Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 34
Word count: 8735
Text sample:
HOWCONCERNED ARE DECISION MAKERS WITHTHE QUALITY OF INFORMATION USED FORFOREIGN POLICY CHOICES? AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS. Nehemia Geva Joe Clare and Katrina N. Mosher * Department of Political Science Texas A&M University Paper prepared for the twenty­ fifth Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology Berlin Germany July 16­19 2002 . The authors thank Uri Geva for his programming of the Computerized Process Tracer ­ PIPS Abstract Foreign policy decision­makers operate in a complex environment often characterized
accessed by the participant as a function of the relevance and reliability conditions. Reliable Unreliable Relevant 9.12 (7.94) 11.42 (6.93) Irrelevant 11.00 (7.20) 12.77 (7.28) *Note: standard deviations in parentheses. 30 Figure 1. A schematic representation of decision thresholds and changes in the CCP A(1) ~A (1) A (2) ~A (2) A(3) ~A (3) 0 0 n 1 2 3 4 5 6 31 Figure 2. Proportion of Use of Force as a function of reliability and validity of


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