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Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Theory of War

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Abstract:

Proponents of the diversionary theory of war have often argued that domestic reselection incentives induce office-seeking leaders to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Previous formal models of diversionary theory, however, have ignored the critical role that strategic interaction plays in foreign policy decision-making. This article addresses this problem by developing a two-state, two-sided incomplete information deterrence model with domestic reselection. According to the model, reselection mechanisms increase a leader?s propensity to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Diversionary incentives in attacking states lead to an increase in war outcomes, while diversionary incentives in defending states may or may not increase the probability of war. The model also predicts that there will be nonmonotonic relationships between economic performance and war and between regime type and diversionary behavior, which may explain the discrepancies among many empirical tests of diversionary theory.

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2 (255), 1 (255), leader (255), p (141), war (137), diversionari (114), state (96), y (96), compet (93), reselect (91), c (89), model (89), 0 (77), attack (70), type (65), econom (62), incompet (60), incent (60), selector (59), defend (57), b (54),

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Keywords: diversionary theory, international conflict, game theory, two-level games
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Gent, Stephen. "Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Theory of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65687_index.html>

APA Citation:

Gent, S. E. , 2002-08-28 "Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Theory of War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65687_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Proponents of the diversionary theory of war have often argued that domestic reselection incentives induce office-seeking leaders to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Previous formal models of diversionary theory, however, have ignored the critical role that strategic interaction plays in foreign policy decision-making. This article addresses this problem by developing a two-state, two-sided incomplete information deterrence model with domestic reselection. According to the model, reselection mechanisms increase a leader?s propensity to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Diversionary incentives in attacking states lead to an increase in war outcomes, while diversionary incentives in defending states may or may not increase the probability of war. The model also predicts that there will be nonmonotonic relationships between economic performance and war and between regime type and diversionary behavior, which may explain the discrepancies among many empirical tests of diversionary theory.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: .pdf
Page count: 39
Word count: 13243
Text sample:
Scapegoating Strategically: Reselection Strategic Interaction and the Diversionary Theory of War Stephen E. Gent Department of Political Science University of Rochester Rochester NY 14627­0146 gent@troi.cc.rochester.edu August 2002 Prepared for delivery at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association August 29 ­ September 1 2002. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. The author would like to thank Christian Grose Curt Signorino Branislav Slanchev and Robert Walker for helpful comments on previous drafts. A previous version of
£ µ 1 £ µ 1 l Incompetent 2 I & IV Fight µ 2 ³ µ 2 l Incompetent 2 I & IV Win µ 2 w £ µ 2 £ µ 2 l Competent 1 IV & V Fight 0 £ µ 1 £ 1 Competent 2 II & V Fight 0 £ µ 2 £ 1 37 Table 7: Values for Updated Beliefs. Leader 1 Leader 2 µ 1 ¢(A) = µ 1 s 1 C


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