|
|
|
|
Before the Primaries: Modeling Presidential Nomination Politics During the Exhibition Season |
|
| Abstract | Word Stems | Keywords | Association | Citation | Get this Document | Similar Titles |
|
STOP!
You can now view the document associated with this citation by clicking on the "View Document as HTML" link below. |
|
Click here to view the document
|
Abstract:
|
This paper develops and compares several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote and of candidate exit dates. Generally, we find that the presidential primary vote can be forecast with a high degree of accuracy, especially for nominations after 1980. The models indicate that candidates' Gallup poll position and cash reserves have significant positive effects on candidates' primary vote share. A model incorporating results of the New Hampshire primary improve the predictive power of the model, indicating that the primary does have an effect "reordering" the relative standings of candidates seeking a presidential nomination. Further models indicate that the New Hampshire effect is substantially greater for Democrats than for Republicans. The models also suggest that network news programs have "over-hyped" some Democratic candidates during the exhibition season. Models forecasting the length of time candidates remain in the race have less predictive power, but yield several significant coefficients including Gallup poll standing, cash reserves, fund-raising, network campaign news coverage, and whether a candidate ran as an "advocate" or "strategic politician."
Check author's web site for an updated version of the paper. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
candid (255), primari (221), nomin (161), campaign (130), presidenti (116), new (106), model (95), democrat (89), hampshir (87), vote (80), 2000 (78), race (74), parti (71), variabl (63), polit (56), poll (54), republican (54), elect (53), 1976 (52), caucus (51), iowa (48), |
|
|
 | Convention | | Need a solution for abstract management? All Academic can help! Contact us today to find out how our system can help your annual meeting. |  | Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. |  | Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! |  | Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! |  | Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. |  | Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! |  | Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! | | Click here for more information. |
|
|
Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
|
Citation:
|
MLA Citation:
| Adkins, Randall., Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne. "Before the Primaries: Modeling Presidential Nomination Politics During the Exhibition Season" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2009-05-27 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65817_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Adkins, R. E., Dowdle, A. J. and Steger, W. P. , 2002-08-28 "Before the Primaries: Modeling Presidential Nomination Politics During the Exhibition Season" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-27 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p65817_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: This paper develops and compares several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote and of candidate exit dates. Generally, we find that the presidential primary vote can be forecast with a high degree of accuracy, especially for nominations after 1980. The models indicate that candidates' Gallup poll position and cash reserves have significant positive effects on candidates' primary vote share. A model incorporating results of the New Hampshire primary improve the predictive power of the model, indicating that the primary does have an effect "reordering" the relative standings of candidates seeking a presidential nomination. Further models indicate that the New Hampshire effect is substantially greater for Democrats than for Republicans. The models also suggest that network news programs have "over-hyped" some Democratic candidates during the exhibition season. Models forecasting the length of time candidates remain in the race have less predictive power, but yield several significant coefficients including Gallup poll standing, cash reserves, fund-raising, network campaign news coverage, and whether a candidate ran as an "advocate" or "strategic politician."
Check author's web site for an updated version of the paper. |
Get this Document:
Find this citation or document at one or all of these locations below. The links below may have the citation or the entire document for free or you may purchase access to the document. Clicking on these links will change the site you're on and empty your shopping cart.
| Document Type: |
.pdf |
| Page count: |
29 |
| Word count: |
13276 |
| Text sample: |
| Before the Primaries: Modeling Presidential Nomination Politics During the Exhibition Season by Randall E Adkins University of Nebraska at Omaha radkins@unomaha.edu Andrew Dowdle Fayetteville State University andrew.dowdle@uncfsu.edu Wayne P. Steger DePaul University wsteger@depaul.edu Abstract: This paper develops and compares several forecasting models of the presidential primary vote and of candidate exit dates. Generally we find that the presidential primary vote can be forecast with a high degree of accuracy especially for nominations after 1980. The models indicate that candidates' |
| Reserves (at end of Jan.) .30 (.20) .30 (.21) .08 (.19) .35 (.25) Cum. Receipts (through Jan.) .00001* (.00) .50* (.29) .00002** (.00) .57* (.32) Cum. TV news (through Jan.) 1.46** (.52) .32 (.56) 2.07*** (.54) .15 (.83) Southern Dem. 2.31 (17.22) 6.66 (15.48) Change in Viability .27 (.31) .04 (.56) .27 (.27) .20 (.66) Changed Party 16.66 (25.13) 2.23 (37.92) Advocacy Cand. 47.60* (26.85) 78.70*** (14.55) 54.64** (23.70) 82.13*** (15.91) NH vote |
Similar Titles:
Candidate Voices Debating Gender, Race and Religion: Analysis of the Democratic and Republican 2008 Presidential Primary Debates
A Computational Model of Political Cognition - The Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation in the 2000 Presidential Election
Divisive Primaries, National Party Unity and the Presidential Vote: an Explanatory Model of General Election Outcomes 1948-2000
|
|
