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Verifying the Common Widsom: Nonvoters Would Be More Democratic |
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Abstract:
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The common wisdom that higher turnout helps Democratic candidates is widely accepted by political and journalists and this belief lies behind much of the partisan debate about election reform. However, political science research finds little or no support of the hypothesis. We adopt a new approach. Using the National Election Studies 1980-2000, we estimate four different vote choice models for voters and use the estimated coefficients from those to obtain predictions of the likely votes of nonvoters, had they gone to the polls. Unlike previous approaches to this question which have used aggregate election returns or nonvoters' post-election stated preferences, our results show strong and consistent support for the convetional wisdom. In this case, politicians seem to know what they are talking about.
Check author's web site for an updated version of the paper. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
vote (137), nonvot (81), elect (80), model (71), voter (66), candid (64), democrat (64), turnout (63), parti (62), would (61), polit (59), differ (43), estim (41), b (39), respond (37), american (33), republican (32), data (31), relat (29), variabl (29), common (27), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Wright, Gerald. and Morehouse, Jeanette. "Verifying the Common Widsom: Nonvoters Would Be More Democratic" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2002 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p66212_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Wright, G. C. and Morehouse, J. L. , 2002-08-28 "Verifying the Common Widsom: Nonvoters Would Be More Democratic" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston Marriott Copley Place, Sheraton Boston & Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p66212_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The common wisdom that higher turnout helps Democratic candidates is widely accepted by political and journalists and this belief lies behind much of the partisan debate about election reform. However, political science research finds little or no support of the hypothesis. We adopt a new approach. Using the National Election Studies 1980-2000, we estimate four different vote choice models for voters and use the estimated coefficients from those to obtain predictions of the likely votes of nonvoters, had they gone to the polls. Unlike previous approaches to this question which have used aggregate election returns or nonvoters' post-election stated preferences, our results show strong and consistent support for the convetional wisdom. In this case, politicians seem to know what they are talking about.
Check author's web site for an updated version of the paper. |
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| Document Type: |
.pdf |
| Page count: |
27 |
| Word count: |
9559 |
| Text sample: |
| Verifying the Common Wisdom: Nonvoters Would Be More Democratic Gerald C. Wright Indiana University Jeanette L. Morehouse Indiana University 1. Introduction: The Common Wisdom. There are not a lot of things that political activists and journalists take for granted but one of them undoubtedly is that a good rule of thumb is that nonvoters tend to be more Democratic and that getting everyone to the polls would be better for Democrats than for Republicans. The basis of the logic |
| 1116 7.3 359 14.2 9.1 5.4 27 Table 4. Estimates of Nonvoters Vote (Four Models) Compared with Voters for Six Elections: Only Nonvoters with a PostElection Candidate Preference Voters Nonvoters Difference Republican Vote N Vote N Hi. Est Low Est Diff: Avg Est Voters 1980 958 51.6 290 49.1 46.7 4 1984 1376 58.2 388 57.4 55.2 2.4 1988 1195 52.9 367 49.9 49.4 3.3 1992 1658 34.0 439 30.5 29 4.2 1996 1116 38.9 282 28.6 21.6 |
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