3
I
NTRODUCTION
In 1991, the Chechen republic declared independence from Russia, beginning a
separatist conflict that has claimed an estimated 115,000 lives to date. Between 1994 and
2003, negotiations between separatist factions and the Russian state were attempted five
times, culminating in two peace accords in 1996 and 1997. Yet, after a short respite, the
conflict renewed, generating over 70,000 battle deaths since the accords.
Disputes over self-determination have become some of the most common conflicts
in the international system and have shown significant resistance to settlement. Both states
and self-determination groups have shown remarkable willingness to negotiate over
autonomy, but comparatively few pairs have been able to reach new agreements on
satisfactory levels of autonomy. Even among pairs that have been able to reach agreements,
only 9% of these agreements are fully implemented, while over 60% of all signed deals
remained contested in 2003.
2
Moreover, in the past two decades, nearly half of all armed
conflicts have been fought over the issue of autonomy and self-determination. This paper
addresses the question: Why can some pairs of states and self-determination groups reach
and implement agreement over autonomy while so many others are unable to do so? If we
can understand the factors affecting the success and failure of these attempts to manage self-
determination claims, we will significantly advance our understanding of a major source of
violent conflict today.
This project seeks to understand the barriers to the settlement of secessionist claims
on the state through autonomy . Both state and self-determination groups have shown
remarkable willingness to negotiate over autonomy, but comparatively few pairs of states and
self-determination groups have been able to implement new agreements. This paper
2
Based on the CIDCM Peace and Conflict 2003 Report.
Convention