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Association: Name: International Studies Association URL: http://www.isanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69588_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Gilardi, Fabrizio. "Taking Galton's Problem Seriously. Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii, Mar 05, 2005 <Not Available>. 2009-05-26 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69588_index.html>

Gilardi, F. , 2005-03-05 "Taking Galton's Problem Seriously. Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Hilton Hawaiian Village, Honolulu, Hawaii Online <.PDF>. 2009-05-26 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p69588_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. Since these mechanisms are grounded on different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion have currently little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinctive ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis that is beyond the scope of this paper, but preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

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